Are Cameron’s migrant benefits cuts really a game-changer?

David Cameron has signalled he is ready to lead Britain out of the European Union if other EU states set their faces against tough new proposals to cut immigration.

In a much-anticipated speech setting out plans to bar European Union migrants from claiming welfare for the first four years after arriving in the UK and deport those who do not find jobs within six months, Mr Cameron warned that he will “rule nothing out” if other European states turn a deaf ear to British concerns.

The prime minister insisted that he still hopes to be able to recommend an In vote in the referendum on EU membership he has promised for 2017, and said he was “confident” of success in the renegotiation of the terms of that membership he plans if Conservatives win next year’s general election.

But he left no doubt that he has not ruled out recommending British exit if other EU nations refuse to compromise on the principle of free movement and accept reforms that he said were “radical” but “reasonable and fair”.

Welfare changes to cut migration from within the EU “significantly” will be an “absolute requirement” in the renegotiation, he said.

Free movement

Under the prime minister’s plans, EU jobseekers without an offer of employment will not be allowed to claim the new universal credit when they arrive in the UK and will be required to leave if they do not find work within six months.

Migrants will be able to claim tax credits and child benefit and to apply for social housing only after four years in the country, and will receive no child benefit or child tax credit for offspring living abroad.

If you elect me as prime minister in May, I will negotiate to reform the European Union and Britain’s relationship with it. David Cameron

“If you elect me as prime minister in May, I will negotiate to reform the European Union and Britain’s relationship with it,” said Mr Cameron. “This issue of free movement will be a key part of that negotiation.

“If I succeed, I will, as I have said, campaign to keep this country in a reformed EU.

“If our concerns fall on deaf ears and we cannot put our relationship with the EU on a better footing, then of course I rule nothing out.

“But I am confident that, with goodwill and understanding, we can and will succeed.”

‘Calm consideration’

David Cameron’s proposals for reform of the EU’s migration rules should be considered “calmly and carefully”, the European Commission said.

Its president Jean-Claude Juncker’s chief spokesman told a press conference in Brussels that it was for the union’s 28 national governments to deal with abuses of the system, but insisted existing EU law allows them to do so.

The proposals won a warm response from business leaders, who welcomed his reaffirmation of the principle of the right to free movement while focusing on action to end abuse of welfare. The Institute of Directors said the prime minister’s speech had “effectively answered” public concerns about immigration.

Eurosceptic Conservatives gave a broadly positive response to the proposals, in what backbench MP Mark Pritchard described as an “excellent” speech.

Pressure group MigrationWatch UK said his plan to restrict access to benefits was “welcome and will be perceived as fair”, while warning it was difficult to predict how much impact it would have on numbers of EU migrants.

But Labour leader Ed Miliband said Mr Cameron had “no credibility” on immigration and voters would not believe his promises, after he failed to meet his “no ifs, no buts” pledge to cut net migration below 100,000 by 2015.

UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage said the prime minister should apologise for his record on immigration, which saw net arrivals soar to 260,000 last year.