A changing North Korea awaits Kim Jong-un

The picture painted of North Korea (DPRK) by the writer Barbara Demick in her 2010 book Nothing to envy is of a state which for the most part is in a time warp, one which sits squarely in the middle of the cold war.

With largely colourless and low-tech surroundings (private ownership of cars, for example, is largely banned and, for the majority of North Koreans, too expensive anyway) the red state is also chronically unable to feed its own people.

In the 1990s, a famine is reported to have killed millions, and earlier this year Channel 4 News reported how the country had sent out a plea (at the time unanswered) via its embassies for urgent food supplies.

I don’t think there’s a demographic which could plausibly pose a serious threat to the government at this point. Sarah McDowall

The World Food Programme (WFP) which is working to distribute energency food supplies in DPRK told Channel 4 News that since October it has been able to reach 2 million vulnerable North Koreans, with young women and children being its main targets.

But its teams, which have been conducting an evaluation of the food supply situation, reported that there has been a 50-100 per cent increase in acute malnutrition since 2010.

WFP’s year-long food distribution programme in the country ends in March 2012 and needs a further $27m to do that.

It says it is encouraged that countries which have not donated funds to help North Korea in the past have done so now and says it has received money from the EU, Russia, Australia and Switzerland among others.

A successful succession?

As for the type of leader we can expect Kim’s heir-apparent to be, Sarah McDowall, senior analyst North East Asia at IHS Jane’s told Channel 4 News she does not expect Kim junior will be “a transformative figure”.

As far as instability is concerned, she thinks it is unlikely to come from anywhere except the ruling classes: “It’s easy to portray the North Korean regime as a monolithic state under a dictator but it’s more complicated than that.

“It’s very difficult to find out very much about the country, but there are probably factions within the state machinery who are perhaps not supportive of Kim Jong-il’s succession process. My guess is that the fact Kim Jong-un looks like his father and grandfather could work in his favour as far as succession is concerned.”

Protests

As for any potential for ordinary North Koreans to use the transition of power as a means to bring democracy to this notoriously repressive state, Sarah McDowall is sceptical a sizeable enough group is present which could enact radical change.

“A few years ago, the government initiated a change to the value of its currency, which saw the savings of – although I hesitate to call it this – the merchant class, wiped out.

“There were rumours of protests but these were clamped down on by the government. I just don’t think there’s a demographic which could plausibly pose a serious threat to the government at this point.

“There’s a heightened risk of small scale outbursts of unrest but the state apparatus should be sufficiently strong to quell this quite easily.”

But as Channel 4 News Asia Correspondent John Sparks has reported, a small but growing number of North Koreans are getting to see the reality of life outside their Communist cocoon as they are able to cross the border or see the fruits of capitalism such as DVD players which are smuggled over the border.

“Kim Jong-un takes over a country that is similarly repressive, yet no longer in the dark. This an undesirable situation for all dictatorships everywhere,” he says.

Sarah McDowall thinks the path ahead for the unknown quantity which is Kim Jong-un is likely to be challenging: “The worry is that Kim Jong-un hasn’t had enough time to sonsolidate his power. Kim Jong-il was well aware his health was failing so he accelerated the succession process.

“It’s likely that the death of Kim Jong-il will result in a more collective approach to leadership, with senior political figures exerting strong influence on Kim Jong-un behind the scenes.

“The challenges going forward are pretty immense. He’s going to have to bolster his image to the military, the public and the government to prove he’s up to the job.”