David Cameron and Ed Miliband will be making their big pitch to voters tonight in the first big set-piece TV election debate.
The Prime Minister and the Labour leader won’t actually be debating with one another, after Mr Cameron ruled out a head-to-head confrontation.
Instead, both men will be grilled by Jeremy Paxman in separate interviews, and face questions from a live studio audience.
Of course we don’t know what they’re going to say, but Labour and the Conservatives have a habit of deploying the same arsenal of dubious claims over and over again.
Here are some of the lies, half-truths and evasions that might come up tonight.
VAT and National Insurance
The biggest movement in the last few days. Labour had been accusing the Conservatives of planning a VAT hike in the next parliament.
Mr Cameron appeared to shoot that one down in the last Prime Minister’s Questions of this parliament, explicitly ruling out a VAT rise.
But Mr Miliband may bring up the fact that Mr Cameron said the Tories had “absolutely no plans to raise VAT” before the last election – before announcing in the very first budget of the coalition that it would rise from 17.5 to 20 per cent.
It’s not the only time Mr Cameron has pulled a policy U-turn or broken a promise – as we found in a recent FactCheck.
Mr Cameron in turn challenged Labour to rule out a National Insurance rise – which Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls duly did.
Both parties are still yet to fill in much of the detail of how they would go about reducing the deficit in the next parliament.
Cutting the NHS?
Another key Labour attack line that has emerged in the last couple of weeks is the assertion that the Conservatives have a “secret plan” to cut the NHS.
But the Tories have explicitly said they would protect spending on the health service in real terms.
Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) figures suggest the coalition has protected the NHS budget in real terms over the last five years, something Labour did not promise to do before the last election.
Labour say they would spend billions more on health than the Conservatives in the next parliament – but that comes with a catch, and neither party has agreed to reach the £8bn target NHS England says the NHS needs.
Worse cuts to come?
Ed Miliband has seized on forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility and the IFS that the latest Treasury spending plans set out in this month’s budget imply steeper cuts to government departments than anything we have seen so far.
But this only tells half the story. George Osborne has made it clear that he would not implement cuts of that scale. Instead, he plans to cut back on welfare spending and raise money from cracking down on tax avoidance.
It’s fair to say that the chancellor has not spelled out exactly how this would be achieved, and the Labour leader is not the only sceptic.
When is a cut not a cut?
The Conservatives have got form when it comes to claiming they are protecting various budgets or spending more, when they are actually making a cut.
Over the last five years Mr Cameron has said the government has given HMRC an “extra £900m” to combat tax dodgers, but actually the taxman has seen his total budget reduced under the coalition.
He has stated the government is “not cutting benefits for disabled children” when less severely disabled children do face a cut in payments.
And he has promised that schools funding will not be cut under the Conservatives – when it will fall in real terms.
The cost of living crisis
Labour have been making much of the fact that real wages have fallen sharply under the coalition, leaving the average worker around £1,600 a year worse off.
There’s no dispute about this, although inflation began to outpace earnings growth under Labour, and wages and income are not the same things.
The IFS recently found that average household incomes – including benefits, pensions and other sources of income – are set to return to their pre-crash levels this year.
Arguably, there’s no clear win for either party here. Incomes have recovered more slowly than after any other recession in recent history, but families may not be feeling the pinch as much as Labour’s rhetoric suggests.
Ultimately, it boils down to who you are. IFS figures suggest that pensioners have been relatively protected from the effects of the recession, compared to working people, especially young adults.
And middle to higher-income earners have done better than the poorest or the very richest thanks to tax and benefits changes made by the coalition.
The jobs miracle
Some economists think slow wage growth and low unemployment are two sides of the same coin: you can have one or the other.
Contrary to predictions made by one E Balls in 2010, private sector job creation has outweighed the public sector jobs cut by the coalition, giving the UK some of the best employment figures in Europe.
Sceptics often say that the quality of jobs has fallen, with zero-hours contracts, part-time and temporary jobs and self-employment explaining the rise in the employment figures.
It’s true that some of these things are more prevalent now, but not enough to explain the rise in employment.
Immigration
Mr Mililband may well mention the fact that the Conservatives failed to meet their target of reducing net migration to the tens of thousands.
It’s also true to say that Labour presided over the biggest increase of immigration to these islands in modern history.
But in purely economic terms, immigration, particularly from within the European Union, may well not be a bad thing.
Cameron & Miliband: The Battle for Number 10 is on tonight at 9pm on Channel 4 – @FactCheck will be tweeting live throughout.
Is the tories or labour still going to pick on our most vunerable sick & disabled with cuts to there benifits ,and retesting our disabled with indefinite awards ,
I would much rather have watched the scheduled ‘Coalition’ than this tripe ! Much more realistic!
Watching C4 with Paxman grilling Cameron. So negative. Every question has a negative slant. How about asking about some questions that show what success there has been. This type of questioning makes me so angry and I am sure will bring some element of sympathy to Cameron.
Rubbish!!!! Ed is getting no chance to speak whereas David C was allowed to speak! Tori bias I’m afraid !!! Presenters are Tori’s.. Check it
TBH this was rubbish. How can you air a two party program. How is that fair race when only the chosen two are on air! Why promote only two parties on one program in a Democratic society.
Wake up people. A race is a race.
So in the Olympics, shall we let the top three runners have a 1 seconds head start in a 100m race. No we don’t. Play fair.
I see the on the 30th april, there is a debate just between Con’s, Lab’s ad Lib’s. Democratic???????????????????????????????????????????
What am awful cruel undignified question
Just watching the questions between Cameron and Miliband, the treatment of Cameron was so deferential and the treatment of Miliband is so hostile from the presenter. The questions began with irrelevant personal questions… this is a poor performance by Chanel 4
the questions to Ed sounded like your audience was full of Cameron voters ??
Whilst watching the audience debate it is obvious that Ed M is being challenged much more than David C by Kate. It seems David C was able to take his time on long political answers and Ed was pushed much more and even #4 of 4 ·
Was in protaras first week of June and it was 30 degrees every day Challenged on personal relationships !!!
Very 1 sided…very pro conservative.
More inclined to vote Labour now
Taxi for Milliband – bumbling and useless up against Paxman, can’t answer or defend anything.This guy wants to be PM – God help us
I think that Packman was very rude to ed and spoke to him as though he was on trial for murder
I think the last few minutes of Ed Miliband’s interview with Jeremy Paxman was an absolute disgrace! Paxman waged a personal attack on Miliband!
Jeremy Paxman was toe curlingly embarrassing. The style of the questioning was churlishly nitpicking and the focus was repeatedly tabloid tittle-tattle. Shame on you Jeremy. This was not a ‘grilling’ on the behalf of the British people. This was another arrogant TV personality flexing their ego. Belittling his interviewees was neither constructive nor revealing. The strain between the Milliband brothers being the post interview headline/soundbite. How pathetic.
Having watched the program, I feel the personal comments and attitude of both presenters exhibited a bias against Mr Milleband not shown toward Mr Cameron. I feel the overall attitude was more derogatory and as presenters their position should be neutral. More respect was shown to Mr Cameron and that appeared unfair to me.
Thanks
I have never ever felt so uncomfortable watching a TV programme . Paxman was a bully I watched this programme to understand our countries successes under both parties, their failures and understand how each party will make our country better than it is today. Why I needed to know about ed’s relationship with his brother and then finish with that comment was completely unbelievable as if that is going to make a difference to voters. I thought 4 and obnoxious paxman were extremely poor and I learned nothing from it as Paxman cut off some key messages from both parties and they were unable to get a lot of points across. Terrible format and some audience questions regarding what they like about each other .. C’mon again another irrelevant point. It didn’t look like 4 researched what the public wanted to see let’s hope itv and BBC do a better job ! Sorry 4 your presenters and format didn’t do it for me! An hour wasted and nothing learned other than how to be a bully !
Shame on Jeremy Paxman for his personal attack on miliband. I am not currently a labour supporter but paxman did a great job of directing my sympathies and support towards miliband. A very biased interview !
Wow, what an absolute joke Channel 4!
One rule for Cameron and another for Miliband, I wonder how many concessions you had to concede to get him on the show.
I used to like this channel but now it’s just a Tory haven.
Why didn’t Cameron get free questions from the audience, like that obvious tory presenter allowed for Miliband – even getting her own question in there.
How can the poor people of this country who have been stitched up by this tory government expect to get a fair debate, when the presenters themselves are clearly more well off under this administration, this was clear to see by the free ride Cameron was given in the pre-determined pathetic questions from the audience.
What was with all the smug audience clips against Miliband – one-sided editing.
If you weren’t to concerned with your own FAT WALLETS, you would of asked Cameron:
How can you justify giving you and the rest of the richest people in this country a massive tax cut, whilst robbing the poorest people in the country with the ‘Bed-room Tax’ for social homes?
There have been many people that have resorted to committing suicide or have ended up on the streets because of this appalling theft of the poor.
This bedroom tax is not only an astonishingly more amount to pay then the Poll tax, but it’s directed at the POOREST in society ONLY.
The program you have conveniently shown after the show says it all, your just banging Cameron’s drum and pandering to the ignorant rich.
You keep bashing the poor Channel 4 and leave the filthy tax-avoiding rich alone.
Disgrace, absolute disgrace.
CHANNEL 4, you have lost all of the respect I used to have for you.
So, so angry!!!
having just watched the Jeremy paxman leaders interview I felt I must comment, as follows ,I believe,that anyone watching, would have been appalled by the biased questioning of mr paxman.
whereas, mr Cameron was encouraged to give lengthy explanations of his policies; mr milliband was subjected to what quickly descended into personal abuse. I am not a supporter of the labour party, but am however an advocate of fair play (in short I’m british) might I proffer the suggestion that channel 4 operate on the same basis
regards m.a.forrest
They are both exactly the same! There is no difference whatsoever between the tories and labour anymore! It’s high time these islands gave the rich toff parasites the boot permanently! We as a nation should be looking at Westminsters vile pedo corruption and jailing every last one of these scumbags!
I found this the worst example of journalism I have ever seen. The personal questions to Mr Miliband about his relationship with his brother was tragic, I did not see them asking the PM about his friendship with Rebecca Brooks, someone at the heart of a disgusting unethical scandal. Paxman opened his questions to Mr Miliband with the most ludicrous hypothetical future…really? I was interested in POLICIES not seeing journalist trying to talk about personal family issues with the leader of the opposition. Asking the PM about shredded wheat..really? Are they on a commission for pushing the brand? This was just bad from every angle.
Watched the leaders debate and was disgusted at treatment given to Miliband by both Paxman and especially Burley who fawned over Cameront. She just accepted every answer by Cameron but chipped in one very answer by Miliband and added her own comments. Both she and Paxman made personal attacks on Miliband.
People whether in their kitchenettes, palatial mansions etc., should always be able to point out their failings; ask for reassurances on promises, press them for the numbers e.g. they may/may not have for bolstering permanent working hours. Remind politicians about the things forgotten in a previous manifesto.
But also, DO be bothered to get you backside out the chair and go and #Vote2015.
This is the most contentious General Election I have witnessed in my lifetime. It’s following a tantalizing and quizzical trial, but with no small something bearing Resilience [At this Ed Miliband has one the first round].
p.s @rustyrockets : I will definitely be pinning my colours to the flag. #WeNeedChange2015
Cannot see much checking of the facts, for example under the employment figures. This is somewhat surprising for “Fact Check.”
The PM has made some pretty bold claims about employment growth. Has nobody checked them yet?
once again another presenter who work under tory biased management ,why working people [not millionaires] would even consider voting conservative when they make it clear ,its more important spending time cutting top rate of tax before any thing else ,yet again same as thatcher Cameron as actually increased deficit not to mention whilst selling off ROYAL MAIL CHANNEL TUNNEL LLOYDS RBS what next NHS! cutting tax for top earners can only mean one thing the rest of us pay ,for these tory toffs to enjoy low taxes whilst selling off anything they can as was mentioned a few weeks ago “david stop selling cows to buy milk”