Published on 2 Oct 2014

Sun poll suggests Ukip won’t get shock result in Heywood and Middleton

The first opinion in the Heywood and Middleton by-election suggests that Labour are comfortably on course to retake the seat.  The poll was conducted by Survation for the Sun newspaper over the last two days, and gives Labour a substantial 19 percent lead over Ukip.  It will come as a huge relief to many in the Labour Party who feared a shock defeat in a seat Labour held with a 6,000 majority in 2010.

The full figures are:

Labour            50%   (Up 10% on 2010)

Ukip                31%  (Up 28%)

Conservative  13%  (Down 14%)

Lib Dems        4%    (Down 19%)

The one worry for Labour is that 19 percent of voters have not yet made up their minds.  The Ukip figure also shows an enormous leap from the 2.6 percent which Ukip recorded in 2010.  The poll suggests that 35 percent of Ukip’s support comes from Labour, and 33 percent from the Tories.

Polls in by-elections often affect the dynamics of the campaign, and build up momentum for a challenging party.  While Ukip may succeed in further squeezing the Conservative share of the vote, it is hard to see how, in the remaining seven days, Nigel Farage’s party can bridge the 19 percent gap suggested by the Survation polling figures for The Sun.

In recent days, according to a senior Ukip source, the party has redirected some of its resources away from the Clacton by-election and towards the Lancashire seat, in the hope that it can pull off a shock double defeat for the two main parties.

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9 reader comments

  1. Mark Thompson says:

    Dont forget that Labour voters are less likely to turnout. Especially in a byelection.

  2. Al Foster says:

    Polls show UKIP has increased it’s vote share more than ten-fold, again achieving one of the biggest swings in by-election history. What’s more “Vote Tory get Milliband” will be painfully obvious to every Tory residual voter in this seat. Clearly too, “Vote Labour get Milliband” disturbs an awful lot of Labour voters too. The media are largely ignoring the jaw-dropping success of UKIP in this by-election, but UKIP has massive momentum and still a week to go.

  3. 60022Mallard says:

    Good poll result . Labour voters can stay at home because they don’t really want to vote for Ed because Labour will win anyway and tactical voting by Tories and the 19% of floaters could get UKIP over the line.

    A wonderful chance to force Ed to not take seats where putting a red rosette on a monkey can usually be won for granted.

  4. Tony Harrison says:

    I live in the Heywood constituency and am a life long Labour voter. I have considered voting Green in the by election because they are the only party offering the radical policies that we are crying out for. However the obnoxious and opportunist UKIP is such a threat that I worry about casting my vote for a party that cannot win. So I shall vote Labour again but with little enthusiasm.

    1. Leslie Kaye says:

      It is Lab Lib Con who have a racist immigration policy which favours Europeans.
      Vote UKIP for an ethical immigration policy which is equal handed to migrants from all parts of the World but controlled on a fair points-based system of merit.

  5. Danny UKIP Wright says:

    You just need to walk down any town to see how much we need UKIP today, our once green and pleasant land has been invaded, muslims, africans, eastern europeans. Only UKIP will return our nation to the land our grandfathers fought to keep British. God Save the Queen. DO YOUR DUTY. VOTE UKIP.

  6. Howard Sykes says:

    UKIP are the only party prepared to listen to the concerns of the electorate in this by election. Under Ed Millibands leadership Labour are travelling backwards in the polls with their 70’s style of politics. Lib Dems are finished as a force in British politics and will lose the majority of their seats in the next election. Conservatives have lost direction. To bring back the Great into Great Britain vote UKIP

  7. nhumphrey1969 says:

    Its very wet all day, and then the soaps will be on… Labour voters won’t bother with a By-election when there’s a proper one in 6 months time.

  8. Phil Cole says:

    Michael’s blog suggesting UKIP doing more damage to Labour is contradicted by Survation’s own report of the same poll, which states: “UKIP in our poll have taken an eye-popping 45% of Conservative 2010 voters and 19% of Labour 2010 voters in this seat.”

    The final result, which showed Labour’s vote increasing and the Tory vote collapsing would suggest that Survation’s right about having more impact on the Conservatives.

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