25 Jun 2015

30C summer heat possible next week

With one month of summer almost behind us, you can’t have failed to notice that this June has been a bit of a let-down in the temperature stakes.

According to the Met Office, the first half of June has seen UK mean temperatures (a combination of day and night temperatures) 1.8C below normal.

Parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland have been even cooler, with mean temperatures around 3C below normal.

sunny_beach_g_wp

Despite it being cool, it has also been drier than normal, leading to greater amounts of sunshine than we’d see in a typical June.

However, the lack of warmth so far this summer may be compensated by a sizzling start to July, with hints from weather computer models that temperatures will soar for a time next week.

Hot air from Spain

During most of June, the wind has been coming from the west, blowing off an Atlantic Ocean where sea temperatures are below average at the moment – slightly cooling the air that travels over it.

However, next week, it looks like the wind will start to come from the south or south east, bringing a plume of hot air towards us from Spain.

hot_air_WZ_wp

Now, as always, there is still some uncertainty as to exactly how hot it will get and how far north the hot air will travel, but the trend is clear.

How hot will it get?

Given that the hot air is coming from Spain, it is southern and eastern parts of the UK that are most likely to see the highest temperatures.

England and Wales could see highs of 22-28C on Tuesday, rising to 23-30C by Wednesday – possibly lasting until Friday. Scotland and Northern Ireland is unlikely to be quite as hot, with 20-25C probable.

sb10068320a-001Whilst there will obviously be some sunshine to get these kinds of temperatures, weather fronts close to the west of the UK will occasionally threaten a little rain.

Also, as the heat and humidity builds in the hottest areas, there will be the risk of some thunderstorms breaking out.

I have no doubt that the classically British excitable talk of barbeques, flip flops and ice creams will quickly be replaced on the second day of the heat with moans of: “Oh my goodness, it’s too hot!”

Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website. I’ll also be posting regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton

GIF images: Wetterzentrale

Tweets by @liamdutton

4 reader comments

  1. Deb says:

    Never mind the elusive summer. Here on the Isle of Skye we are still waiting for Spring..

  2. Frank White says:

    Am currently in the Vendee. France, and will be here again end of August. Can I be confident of Southerly winds to get me back to UK without head-winds? C c

  3. ashley haworth-roberts says:

    Although tabloid newspapers regularly exaggerate (as Liam Dutton has tweeted) when predicting imminent weather events in the UK, at the time of writing this (Sunday evening) I continue to believe that somewhere like ie geographically close to Northolt will officially record 35.0 C, or at least more than 34.1 C (the highest UK temperature back in 2013), on either Wednesday or Thursday or maybe on both days. The weather pattern is similar to the opening week of June 1996 (June being a cooler month, and 1996 being almost 20 years ago in a gradual warming trend in the climate) – when 33 C was recorded in East Anglia after weeks of cool weather. (Incidentally on the BBC Matt Taylor is suggesting “33 C to 35 C” for the southeast on Wednesday – the day the Met Office currently expect the heat to peak: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth)

    I note that I am commenting on a blog by Liam Dutton, when he said that 30 C was ‘possible’, that is now three days old. He has since tweeted suggesting 33 C in the southeast on Wednesday. Only unexpected cloud or storms seems likely to change that inevitability.

  4. Andrew Dundas says:

    Isn’t the true origin the hot North African lands that the Atlantic isn’t cooling?

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