20 Nov 2012

The man who got the US election right – on C4News tonight

Nate Silver is the man who predicted a 90.09 per cent certainty that Obama would win the US Presidential election is in the UK today and tonight appears on Channel 4 News.

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The algorithm – in disgrace for its misuse in the banking scandals surrounding the 2008 financial meltdown – is back. Mr Silver uses algorithms to sift polling information to draw his conclusions.

His track record is so good that his blog now consumes more than 20 per cent of the New York Time’s blog traffic.

But he got the UK General Election 210 badly wrong – predicting a Labour meltdown and a Liberal Democrat surge to 120 seats when in fact they lost a few seats on their pre-2010 numbers.

Questions for Nate Silver? Go ahead. He’s a fascinating phenomenon, and if he’s refined his systems he could render the age of the political pundit dead. Post any questions you’d like me to ask him.

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