Michel Barnier spells out Brexit consequences to UK
Michel Barnier, the EU negotiator, has delivered a speech this morning that could be read as a call to arms to UK politicians nervous about Theresa May’s Lancaster House approach to Brexit.
He lays out the harm that he says will be done to Britain by her approach and talks of delusions that still prevail amongst “some people in the UK” (I don’t think he’s been wandering down Godalming High Street so I suspect he means the very top of the UK government).
There is quite a lot of impatience in Brussels with what they see as a shambolic London. One source says that the June 26th meeting between Mr Barnier and David Davis was “very sticky.” Mr Barnier makes a point today of spelling out that the first phase negotiation topics must be settled “together” (underlined) suggesting he sniffed slippage in the chat with the Brexit Secretary on that.
Mr Barnier chose a business audience that includes employers and trade union representative groups, to say that “only the combination of the internal market and the customs union guarantees the free movement of goods.” It’s significant that he uses the definite article when describing customs unions. He goes on to try to kill off the chatter about setting up “a customs union” (a bespoke arrangement like Turkey has with the EU) emphasising that such a set-up keeps customs controls and other checks in place as is far from the “frictionless” trade talked about by UK ministers.
Mr Barnier tells businesses to prepare for disruption ahead but you can’t help thinking as you read it that he may be actually urging them to lobby their politicians to stop Lancaster House Brexit from happening.
There’s been talk in the highly fluid political scene in Westminster of trying to explore cross-party support for a transitional phase that keeps the UK in the Single Market and the Customs Union. One former Labour Cabinet minister told me: “the idea is to do get a transitional phase that goes on for 5 years or so and then we just decide to stay in it.” The pro-Single Market amendment to the Queen’s Speech last week wasn’t a great curtain opener for that effort, the Labour source said, but it had “real potential.”
Two weeks ago at the EU Council meeting, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in answer to a question asking if he was clearer now on the UK position on Brexit snapped back: “no.” The frustration in Brussels is boiling over and Mr Barnier’s speech reads like a symptom of that, even though he calls for everyone to “keep our calm.”
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