16 Jan 2015

Will young people vote at the general election?

Ed Miliband says that electoral changes mean one million people, many of them students, have fallen off the voters’ register in the past year.

The Labour leader on Friday blamed the “hasty” introduction of the new system of individual voter registration, with students particularly affected.

Labour has claimed the number of people registered to vote has fallen in many university towns, blaming in part changes which mean universities and colleges can no longer block register students living in halls of residences to vote.

In total 3.3 million people will be eligible to vote for the first time in 2015. According to the election watchdog, about 30 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds are currently not registered to vote compared with fewer than 5 per cent of those aged over 65.

A YouGov poll for the think-tank British Future in 2014 found only 41 per cent were planning to have their say at the ballot box.

Who will young people vote for?

Despite low levels of engagement, overall first-time voters are almost twice as likely to support Labour as Conservative. In December the Green party was on 22 per cent among 18-24 year-olds – tied with the Conservatives for second place.

Aggregating each month’s daily polls over the course of 2014, the Green party had a 22 per cent share of the vote in December among 18-24 year-olds – tied with the Conservative party, also on 22 per cent. Meanwhile, Labour’s share has continued to fall among young people. In December it stood at 32 per cent, slightly below their average for the country as a whole (33 per cent). To put this into perspective, 44 per cent of the younger generation said they would vote Labour in January 2014.

The Liberal Democrat youth vote share (5 per cent) is under half that of UKIP (13 per cent). On the eve of the 2010 general election, YouGov had the Lib Dems on 37 per cent among the broader age group of 18-34 year olds.

Who do they want to run the country?

When respondents were asked “Who do you think would do the best job of running the country?” Mr Miliband still leads the pack with 17 per cent, but both Mr Cameron and Mr Johnson are close behind with 15 per cent each.

Meanwhile young people prefer figures like Alan Sugar, Russell Brand (12 per cent apiece) or even Jeremy Clarkson (11 per cent) over Nigel Farage (9 per cent), and Nick Clegg languishes on only 6 per cent, tied with TV chef and public health activist Jamie Oliver. Yet among those who say they’re certain to vote, 24 per cent choose Mr Miliband and 21 per cent Mr Cameron.

Another factor that helps to explain the sense of disillusion among potential first-time voters is that they feel like they’re the last people politicians want to talk to. In fact they feel that politicians would rather listen to celebrities than to young people they are supposed to represent.

Which issues matter most?

When it comes to personal priorities, 45 per cent list finding a job as the most important issue to them. Probably as a result of this, getting the right education and training ranks second at 37 per cent, followed by the state of the economy (36 per cent).

Next came finding the right place to live and transport (21 per cent apiece), health and environment (each on 20 per cent), ‘amount of tax I have to pay’ and ‘paying my debts’ (19 per cent each). ‘Immigration in my area’ and ‘crime in my area’ both scored 14 per cent.

On national issues, the economy topped our poll with 44 per cent, closely followed by unemployment one point down at 43 per cent. After this came education (31 per cent), immigration/asylum (28 per cent), welfare (27 per cent), health (24 per cent), debt (24 per cent) and finally housing (22 per cent).