Which way now for Burma?

Faced with the news that her father would be one of 650 people to be released from one of Burma’s hated prison cells holding up to 2,000 political prisoners, Wai Hnin was unable to believe it. After several occasions on which promises to release prisoners were later broken, it was only after she heard his voice in a long-distance phonecall from London to Rangoon that she knew it was true.

Her story is not an uncommon one. Despite the apparently rapid pace of change, which has seen a new nominally civilian, yet military-backed government introduce such reforms as political opponents’ rights to demonstrate, a relaxation of censorship rules and a promise that by-elections in April will be fair, for many – particularly ethnic groups spread across the country – the verdict is yet to be decided.

Weapon of war

Human rights organisations say that evidence has emerged which suggests that the military has stepped up a campaign of sexual violence against women and children in areas such as Kachin, as part of a general pattern of abuse towards ethnic groups. “The Burmese army has systematically used rape as a weapon of war against ethnic women in Burma,” Anna Roberts, executive director of the Burma Campaign UK, told Channel 4 News. “It’s a long standing tactic of the army in order to attack ethnic people in this way. It seems to be a matter of policy.”

US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and British foreign secretary, William Hague, have been among several senior western politicians to visit in apparent gestures of diplomatic solidarity with the mood for change. Mr Hague becoming the first UK official of such seniority to do so since the army took over in 1962. They have met former general Thein Sein who is now president and head of the new government which had previously been ruled by dictator Than Shwe, and recently released Nobel laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi.

“The Burmese army has systematically used rape as a weapon of war against ethnic women in Burma.” Anna Roberts, Burma Campaign UK

For Wai Hnin, 23, and her family, however, despite the release of her father, whom she believed she would never see again, it is only a time for “cautious optimism”. A fear that her father may again be detained remains. “Political prisoners have been released conditionally and can’t apply for a passport. It’s only a suspension of the prison sentence, like parole. There is no national reconcilliation process. It’s not an amnesty – they were only released because the president wanted this, and if he wants them back in prison, he can do that. We need legal and constitutional reform to ensure the changes will go on until a new system comes into the country.”

Knife edge

The background to his arrest continues to serve as a painful reminder of the knife edge upon which political activism rests in Burma. Arrested in 2007 as an activist, having previously been jailed for his peaceful part in the 1988 uprising, Wai Hnin and her family believed he would get around 25 years. But after a closed trial, he was sentenced to 65 years on 21 charges, including unlawful association, undermining the stability of the country, and under the paper act, because he had foreign newspapers and newspapers of the [opposition] National League for Democracy (NLD).

“Then I just gave up hope,” she said. “I thought everything was out of control. I thought I wouldn’t see him again in my life, and I thought everything was finished.”

“People in city areas are very excited and are seeing changes.” Wai Hnin, daughter of political prisoner

Wai Hnin moved to London in 2006 because she wanted to be a teacher, but was forbidden from taking a government job as her father was regarded as a criminal.

“When my mother called me and said my father was one of the ones who was going to be released, I didn’t want to believe it, until I talked to him on the phone. When I did, I was smiling and crying at the same time. I didn’t know how to react, or how to talk to him. We talked about family – it was just so amazing. I thought that would never happen. Then, typically, he said ‘what are we going to do next, because lots of my friends are still in prison’.”

Deep down problems

Now, said Wai Hnin, “people in city areas are very excited and are seeing changes. They are hopeful about the future. My family and friends say how wonderful it is that when they go around, they can see pictures of Aung San Suu Kyi, and said political groups are still going around. At the same time, my grandparents are very worried this is only on the surface, because there are lots of deep-down problems to be solved.”

With the shadowy nature of a notoriously secretive and isolationist regime ruled by a president about whom little is known, it is as yet unclear as to the reasons behind the changes.

While some believe they are being implemented in order to get punitive sanctions imposed against the regime lifted so as to achieve a degree of economic prosperity and liberation from Beijing, some analysts have suggested that recent events in the Middle East have also served as a harsh reminder of the occasional fate of dictators.

“There are not as many regimes who are going to successfully manage a transition.” Dr Gareth Price, Chatham House

Dr Gareth Price, an expert in Burma at think tank Chatham House, said: “We are seeing something. There is a change in rhetoric. There is nothing in President Thein Sein’s background to suggest he is a good liberal. Is he fearful after the Arab Spring?

“They could also say that the NLD [Aung San Suu Kyi’s party] is not sufficiently structured or powerful to present a threat. South East Asian politicians also say that backroom urges to reform have paid off.”

What next?

As to whether the reforms will bring about meaningful change, or deepen further, “there are not as many regimes who are going to successfully manage [such a radical] transition”, Dr Price said.

Likewise, some suggest Western attempts to woo Rangoon precede a predicted goldrush, as American and European companies scramble to cash in on the resources Burma has to offer once sanctions are lifted.

Yet without pressure from the international community, activists argue, reforms may surreptitiously be rolled back. A major test will be the forthcoming April by-election.

“These elections are going to be very important to demonstrate what happens next,” Dr Price said.