How does wintry weather affect UK gas supplies?

Put the crowbar down. We don’t have to start ripping up the floorboards for fuel, just yet. It’s true long-term storage sites are depleted, but according to the people that run it, this is perfectly normal for this time of year.

“Large reserves in storage in the last few weeks of winter would mean the market just isn’t working,” said spokeswoman Isobelle Rowley.

In fact, a close look at the numbers show that while things are getting tight, we’re not in the danger zone as far as gas supplies go. Daily supply and demand data from National Grid show gas demand today is nearly 25 per cent higher than normal for this time of year. But show demand is still well below the level at which warnings would have to be issued to gas wholesalers and their customers.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Energy and Climate Change was equally reassuring: “We now rely on a diverse range of [gas]sources. This includes North Sea production, pipelines from Norway and the EU, shipments of liquefied natural gas from further afield, and storage.”

Warm now, pay later

Analysts became worried yesterday as demand remained high, and a key pipeline connecting the UK with the continent failed. Yesterday the Q interconnector set a new record for the amount of gas it carried from Belgium to the UK (nearlly 800GWhrs enough to heat around 5000 homes for a year).

The interconnector is now working again, easing pressure from other parts of the gas supply system.

Though the gas will almost certainly keep flowing this winter, don’t get too comfy. Most companies purchase their winter gas supplies in advance at the lowest prices. As their demand forecasts are exceeded by the dreadful weather, they have to buy much more expensive gas to meet the shortfall.

Despite the extra money they will have made from selling customers extra gas, it’s likely the costs of more expensive supplies will be passed on to all of us in bills in the not-too-distant future.