Egyptian election: Islamist or former military man?

Egypt’s first free presidential election since the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak looks set to be decided in a run-off between the ousted ruler’s last prime minister, ex-air force chief Ahmed Shafiq, and the Muslim Brotherhood‘s Islamist candidate Mohammad Mursi.

Although official results are not expected until Tuesday, the Brotherhood announced on Friday morning that this was the likeliest course after almost all votes were counted.

That leaves the secular candidate Amr Moussa, former head of the Arab League and foreign minister for 10 years, and the independent candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a moderate Islamist who appeals to liberals and conservatives alike, out of the running.

Who will be getting Egyptian women’s vote?
Despite the political diversity of the front-runners, there are no women candidates in Egypt’s presidential elections, after the only female representative, Bothaina Kamel, failed to gather enough support to qualify. Channel 4 News examines the presidential frontrunners and asks if there will be a political role for women in Egypt’s future. Read more here.

This week’s first-round vote has polarised Egyptians between those determined to avoid handing the presidency back to a man from Mubarak’s era and those fearing an Islamist monopoly of ruling institutions.

A victory for Mursi would consolidate electoral gains made by fellow-Islamists in other Arab countries in the past year.

Israel has nervously watched the Islamist rise; while Mursi vaguely advocates a “review” of the 1979 peace treaty, Shafiq has vowed to uphold it.

In February, Henry Kissinger, the man who brokered the end of the 1973 Yom Kippur war which began after Egypt and Syria attacked Israel, told Channel 4 News that if an Islamist government replaced Mubarak it would be a “fundamental change to the kind of world we have known since World War Two“.

The second round threatens further turbulence. Shafiq’s opponents have threatened protests if he wins the presidency, while Mursi’s opponents have predicted tensions with the army should he become president.

“Now Egyptians will have to choose between the revolution and the counter-revolution. The next vote will be equivalent to holding a referendum on the revolution,” Mohamed Beltagy, a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood said today.

Read more: Egypt’s revolution one year on

Young Egyptian revolutionaries who helped topple Mubarak now face what they see as a dispiriting choice between a conservative Islamist and a hardline member of the old guard.

“To choose between Shafiq or Mursi is like being asked do you want to commit suicide by being set on fire or jump in a shark tank,” academic Adel Abdel Ghafar wrote on Twitter.

Tareq Farouq, a 34-year-old Cairo driver, said: “I’m in shock. How could this happen? The people don’t want Mursi or Shafiq. We’re sick of both. They are driving people back to Tahrir Square.”

Egypt will elect a president before rewriting a post-Mubarak constitution to define the powers of the head of state, parliament and other institutions.

Election committee officials said late on Thursday that about half of Egypt’s 50 million eligible voters had cast ballots. The Brotherhood official put the turnout at 40 per cent.

Official results are not expected until Tuesday. The run-off will be held on June 16 and 17 and the military council has pledged to hand power to a new president by July 1.