22 Sep 2013

Germany election: Could Merkel edge an absolute majority?

Angela Merkel is on track to win her third term as Germany’s chancellor – and could also claim a rare absolute majority for her conservative bloc of parties.

Chancellor Merkel hailed the apparent victory in Germany’s national election as a “super result”, as exit polls suggested that her Christian Democrats (CDU) party and Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union had won between 42 per cent and 42.5 per cent of the vote.

This created a chance that the CDU bloc would achieve an absolute majority – a rare event in German politics.

Read more: No 'wild-eyed' exuberance, but Merkel remains 'quietly alluring'

A projection based on exit polls and some results from broadcaster ARD put Merkel’s CDU/CSU bloc on 42.5 per cent of the vote, compared with a combined total for left parties of 41.6 per cent.

The last time a German party won an absolute majority was in 1957 with conservative leader Konrad Adenauer.

The centre-left challenger Peer Steinbrueck’s Social Democrats (SDP) came in second, by a significant margin, with around 26 per cent of the vote.

“We will do all we can in the next four years together to make them successful years for Germany,” Ms Merkel said.

“It is too early to say how we will proceed but today we should celebrate.”

Coalition conundrum

However, it was unclear whether or not the CDU would defionitely achieve the absolute majority, and could be forced into a coalition with centre-left rivals as some of Chancellor Merkel’s centre-right allies looked in danger of failing to reach parliament.

The CDU’s centre-right coalition partners the Free Democrats (FDP) appeared to have polled 4.7 per cent of the vote, shy of the 5 per cent needed to remain in parliament.

However, the centre-left parties fared better. Some predictions have the Greens on 8 per cent of the vote and the hardline Left party were on 8.5 per cent.

A coalition of these parties covers 42.5 per cent of the vote. This means that the future government structure of Germany is, to some extent, dependent on the fortune of the Alternative for Europe party – a new outfit with a eurosceptic agenda.

Alternative for Europe is currently polling 4.9 per cent of the vote, a hair’s breadth from reaching the Bundestag.

Mr Steinbrueck said it was up to Ms Merkel to decide what a future German government would look like. The CDU and the SDP last governed jointly between 2005 and 2009.

Negotiations for a CDU-SDP coalition, if that is the path Ms Merkel chooses to follow, would be drawn out, with the left likely to push for some of its policies, such as a minimum wage and tax hikes for top earners, to be adopted. It is also not a popular option amongst the CDU party faithful.

“We won’t be committing to any coalition this evening,” SPD second-in-command Andrea Nahles said.

If the result is confirmed, Ms Merkel will become the third post-war Chancellor in German history to win three elections.