Poll of polls: closing the election gap

Policies aside it seems politicians can at least agree on one thing – that the 2010 election will be the most close fought for nearly twenty years.

With the country dragging its heels out of recession and political scandal hitting the headlines, the public mood seems to be divided. So much so that some analysts have predicted a hung parliament – where no party gains overall majority.

According to recent polls the Conservative party, with its campaign aimed at bashing Labour’s plans for green shoots and urging a “vote for change”, are out in front. But just how big is the lead and will it really make a difference on polling day?

Three diverging polls were published today, giving the Tories a lead over Labour of between 4 and 10 points.

A YouGov poll for The Sun put the Conservative party on 41 per cent, ahead of Labour on 31 per cent.

It was the first time the Conservatives scored more than 40 per cent in that poll since early January and gave them the kind of lead they need to win an overall Commons majority.

Another poll, by Opinium Research for the Daily Express, gave the Tories a similar lead, by 39 per cent over Labour’s 29 per cent.

However, a third poll, by ICM for the Guardian, suggested Labour had enjoyed a surge of support in the past week and was now just four points behind the Conservatives.

It put Labour up four since last week on 33 per cent, and the Tories down one on 37 per cent.

YouGov told Channel 4 News that although today’s polls differed they still showed the same emerging trend.

“This is more about the general trend of the polls,” a spokesman said. “Are they that different? Generally speaking it’s the same story – the Conservative party are ahead.

“The Labour party were closing the gap but since the budget we’re seeing a Conservative increase.”

The ratings published in the Guardian were the best for Labour in an ICM poll since December 2008 and the Tories’ worst since February.

That result would almost certainly mean a hung parliament and might even give Labour the most MPs.

Electoral Calculus has predicted that despite winning more seats than Labour the Conservatives will still fall short by 26 seats and will not win a majority.

In the new 650-seat parliament, by definition, a party needs to win 326 seats to achieve a majority over all other parties.

A Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition has a 19 per cent chance of probability with a Labour/Lib Dem coalition coming in at 16 per cent, according to Electoral Calculus.

So is a hung parliament on the cards after all?

With the polls putting the Lib Dems in third supporters will be hoping that leader Nick Clegg capitalises on the possibility of a hung parliament during his campaign.

With swingometers twitching in every direction it seems the campaign is not, as Clegg recognised today, the usual “two-horse race”.

While most the attention will be on the conventional opinion polls, an experiment is also underway to see if the results can be predicted by the online “buzz”.

Tweetminster is tracking mentions of individual constituencies on Twitter to see if the candidate with the most mentions is the eventual winner.

Its latest results shows the Conservatives on 36 per cent, Labour on 33 per cent, Liberal Democrats on 22 per cent and others on 9 per cent.