Political Crisis in Northern Ireland: What is going on?

If they follow through on their threat to leave the power-sharing Northern Ireland executive, the province could see a return to direct rule from London – something that would be strongly opposed by both Northern Ireland’s nationalist parties and by the Government in Dublin.

Parties are currently in talks to bring Northern Ireland back from the brink, but things are far from secure.

Why, 18 years from the Good Friday agreement is power sharing under threat?

It hangs on the role the IRA plays or does not still play in Northern Ireland. One of the reasons that the Unionists agreed to work with Sinn Féin was a 2005 statement saying that IRA was dissolved.

Police have said that they suspect members of the IRA of the murder of Kevin McGuigan – himself a former IRA hitman.

One of the people the police have arrested is the Sinn Fein regional chairman Bobby Storey.

Why does this matter?

This is a big deal because Sinn Féin maintain that the provisional IRA has been disbanded.

Although police in Northern Ireland say they have evidence former IRA members were involved in the murder they are clear there is no evidence that the murder was sanctioned by any official arm of the organisation.

George Hamilton, the chief constable of Norther Ireland said the murder was carried out by former members of the provisional IRA.

Mr Hamilton said: “They are not on a war footing, they are not involved in paramilitary activity in the sense that they were during part of the conflict.

“Nevertheless we assess that in common with the majority of Northern Ireland paramilitary groups from the period of the conflict, some of the PIRA structure from the 1990s remains broadly in place, although its purpose has radically changed since this period.”

So the IRA is the only problem then?

There is more going on than an argument over the IRA – there is also political posturing within the delicate power-sharing deal that exists in Northern Ireland.

A fact the DUP admit themselves. DUP First Minister Peter Robinson has said the Assembly is “not fit for purpose as it stands today”.

He clearly stated that “leaving aside the issue of the Kevin McGuigan murder it still wasn’t fit for purpose. So, those issues have to be resolved” and hinted that his ministers would still resign unless all of “those issues are resolved”.

What could happen next?

The DUP, who share power in an uneasy coalition with Sinn Féin and four other parties, reacted furiously to the arrest.

As a result of the apparent IRA links to the murder the DUP issued an ultimatum: the business committee in Northern Ireland’s assembly, or the UK Government, must suspend the assembly while the fallout from the murder is worked through or his ministers resign.

However it was put before Stormont’s business committee and opposed – by the Ulster Unionists, SLDP and Sinn Féin – for the second time.

If the DUP collapses the power-sharing executive, the governance of Northern Ireland could revert to London for the first time in a decade.

What do Sinn Féin say?

Sinn Féin maintains the Provisional IRA no longer exists. They say it “left the stage” after a 2005 ceasefire.

The police allegations have the potential for serious damage to relations between the parties sharing power at the top of Northern Ireland — any confirmation of a link could derail the crisis talks called by the Irish and British governments which started on Tuesday.

Martin McGuinness, Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister and a leading figure in Sinn Féin, insisted that Mr Storey was “a longstanding and loyal supporter, defender and advocate of the peace and political processes”.

Mr Adams said he had “grave concerns” about the circumstances of the arrest. He told RTE: “I’ve made it very clear that the IRA has gone. Nobody is a member of it.”

What happpened today?

Stormont First Minister and DUP leader Peter Robinson announced he is to resign from the executive with immediate effect, but colleague Arlene Foster became temporary First Minister, meaning the future of power-sharing is now on the brink.

Mr Robinson, who will step aside with all bar one of his ministers, said in a statement: “In light of the decision by republicans, nationalists and the UUP to continue with business as usual in the Assembly, I am therefore standing aside as First Minister and other DUP Ministers will resign with immediate effect with the exception of Arlene Foster.

“I have asked Arlene to remain in post as Finance Minister and acting First Minister to ensure that nationalists and republicans are not able to take financial and other decisions that may be detrimental to Northern Ireland.”

The DUP is the largest party and the power-sharing institutions in Northern Ireland cannot operate without them. However while the executive will not meet, executive departments will still function under the temporary arrangements.

The DUP had wanted an urgent meeting of Stormont’s business committee in order to adjourn further Assembly meetings and allow more time for negotiations.

It was always unlikely as it would have taken a majority vote in the committee today for the assembly to be adjourned. Sinn Fein, Ulster Unionists, SDLP and Alliance would have had to reverse their positions. They did not.

The decision now falls into the hands of Secretary of State Theresa Villiers, but she has already said that the time is not right for a suspension.

If she does not suspend, then the DUP could follow through and leave the executive, even with a temporary leader, meaning power-sharing could collapse within days.

So David Cameron could take over?

The end of devolution would mean the Conservative London-based government would impose their policies on Ireland, not a popular prospect.

Is there hope it could be avoided? The five parties in the regional government have been asked to attend the discussions hosted by the governments of the UK and Ireland.

However Ulster Unionists have already pulled out, saying that the IRA are not at the top of the agenda and the DUP have publically entrenched their position.

Could this mean a return to the Troubles?

This is unlikely. Northern Ireland has come a long way in the last 18 years. The vast majority of communities and mainstream parties are opposed to any return to violence – including Sinn Féin voters.

In the event of both the Executive collapsing and the talks breaking down, the London Government could opt for new elections, which would follow after a six-week period.

An election, commentators say, on the back of an unsolved murder could contribute to instability rather than solve it.