1 Oct 2012

October can be a fickle month

It’s my first day back in the office after a relaxing week off and it seems as though I missed a week of pretty lively weather!

In my blog just over a week ago, I hinted that there was some uncertainty with the forecast last week.

This was due to various weather computer models offering a range of outcomes as to how energy from an ex-hurricane would interact with the jet stream – something that would determine the scale of the low pressure system that moved across the UK.

Having looked back at what happened last week, the low pressure did indeed form. The problem was that rather than moving through like most of our weather systems do, it got stuck over us for a long time – causing persistent heavy rain and flooding.

Today, as I made my journey to work, there was a definite feel of autumn in the air. Grey skies loomed overhead with a fine drizzle falling from the sky, accompanied a damp chill reminiscent of autumn.

Autumn, like spring, is a transitional season, where we progress from summer to winter. This means that a huge range of weather can be experienced during the month of October as warm and cold air battle it out for supremacy.

Last year’s October heatwave

Take this day last year as an example when England and Wales were under the influence of an area of high pressure, with a gentle southerly breeze feeding a plume of very warm air over us from Spain.

Temperatures reached the mid to high 20s in the sunshine, with Gravesend in Kent reaching 29.9C, well above average for the time of year.

However, Scotland and Northern Ireland didn’t fare as well with a weather front bringing cloud and rain, with temperatures pegged back at 15-19C for most places.

October this year

October is a very tricky month to give a detailed forecast for too far ahead, mainly due to the changeable characteristics it has. However, it is possible to give a general trend as to what the coming few weeks may bring.

Whilst the rest of this week looks cool and breezy with some rain, there are signs that next week could become a little more settled at times as high pressure drifts over us.

This would bring a spell of drier weather with some sunshine by day, but chilly nights with a touch of frost and patchy fog.

One thing that looks fairly certain at the moment is that a spell of warm weather looks unlikely, with temperatures more likely to be below average than above.

Don’t forget you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website and you can follow me on Twitter for regular updates – @liamdutton

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