Polls show hung parliament is moving closer
Updated on 25 April 2010
Polls suggest little chance of an outright winner as Conservatives maintain narrow edge over Liberal Democrats, with Labour third. Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, of Nottingham Business School's Political Forecasting Unit, examines the latest trends.
There are six polls out today, all but one of which puts Labour in third place. Taking an average of the latest fieldwork, the Conservatives score 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats 30 per cent and Labour 26 per cent.
Polling Commentary
There are six polls out today, all but one of which puts the Conservatives on top, and all but one of which puts Labour in third place.
Ipsos/Mori is the outlier, putting the Liberal Democrats apparently in third place. Closer inspection, however, shows that this pollster fails to weight by past vote. Adjusting for this gives the Conservatives 34 per cent of the vote, the Liberal Democrats 32 per cent and Labour 23 per cent.
In any case, the fieldwork for this poll is relatively dated, having been completed on Friday. It seems appropriate, therefore, to omit the Ipsos/Mori poll (raw and adjusted) from the Poll of Polls, though it is included in the Polling Tracker.
Poll of Polls
BPIX/Mail on Sunday: Con 34, Lib Dem 30, Labour 26;
ComRes/Independent on Sunday: Con 34, Lib Dem 29, Lab 28;
ICM/Sunday Telegraph: Conservative 35, Lib Dem 31, Lab 26;
One Poll/Sunday People: Conservative 32, Lib Dem 32, Labour 23;
YouGov/Sunday Times: Conservative 35, Lib Dem 28, Lab 27;
The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' has the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 30 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent.
Assuming a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would win 262 seats in the House of Commons, Labour would win 256 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 101 seats.
This would leave the Conservatives 64 short of an overall majority. The markets agree that no one party is likely to win a majority in the House of Commons.
The polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares.
There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.
Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, termed ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today:
Conservatives: 275 seats;
Labour: 234 seats;
Liberal Democrat: 106 seats;
Others: 35 seats;
Election barometer
The Political Forecasting Unit's 'election barometer', designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives on 34 per cent, four points ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 30 per cent, with Labour on 27 per cent.
This is deeply "hung parliament" territory. On these figures, the Political Forecasting Unit’s ANS (adjusted national swing) methodology projects the following seats distribution: Con: 275 seats, Lab 234 seats, Lib Dem 106 seats.
An analysis of the money placed in political betting markets also suggests that no party will secure a majority of the seats in the House of Commons.
Daily poll of polls
Conservative: 34 per cent
Labour: 30 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 26 per cent
PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 34 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 30 per cent
Labour: 27 per cent
Outcome: Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency. Conservatives: 275 seats
Labour: 234 seats
Liberal Democrat: 106 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 51.
Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 308 seats
Labour: 224 seats
Liberal Democrat: 84 seats
Other: 34 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 18 seats.
Percentage chances of a majority
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 36.0 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 4.0 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 1.3 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 58.7 per cent
(Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School.
