Poll of polls: Tories edge ahead
Updated on 24 April 2010
It's steady as she goes, as second debate has little effect on polls. Prof Leighton Vaughan Williams, of Nottingham Business School's Political Forecasting Unit, examines the latest trends.
There are two national polls out, and they both show the Conservatives with a small but clear edge over the Liberal Democrats and Labour.
Labour trails third in one of the polls, and joint second in the other. Comparing polling taken just before and just after the debate indicates that the debate has had little effect in shifting opinions.
Polling Commentary
Harris/Daily Mail: Con 34, Lib Dem 29, Lab 26;
YouGov/Sun: Con 34, Lab 29, Lib Dem 29;
Both new polls today (shown above) show the Conservatives with a lead over the Liberal Democrats and Labour.
One of the polls, YouGov for the Sun, has the Lib Dems and Labour in joint second place, while Harris for the Daily Mail shows Labour continuing to languish in third.
The YouGov poll, based on fieldwork conducted since the second debate, can be compared directly with the YouGov poll published yesterday, which was based on fieldwork conducted before the debate.
This shows the Conservatives and Labour unchanged, with the Liberal Democrats up one.
At face value, this mirrors an average of the post-debate instant polls, showing the Liberal Democrat leader the marginal winner of the debate, but the change is so small as to be statistically insignificant.
As things stand, therefore, we have essentially the same situation as just before the debate.
The Conservatives have the edge in terms of vote share, with the Liberal Democrats close behind, and Labour just behind them in third.
In terms of seats, this would still make Labour the largest party (assuming a uniform national swing), though well short of an overall majority.
Today's poll of polls, based on these surveys, puts the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 29 per cent and Labour on 28 per cent.
The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' currently paints a similar picture, with the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 30 per cent and Labour on 28 per cent.
Assuming a uniform national swing, Labour would on this basis win 267 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 255 seats and the Liberal Democrats 97 seats, all within a handful of seats of what is projected by the poll of polls.
This would leave Labour 59 short of an overall majority. The markets agree that no one party is likely to win a majority in the House of Commons.
The Political Forecasting Unit polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares.
There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.
Election barometer
The Political Forecasting Unit's 'election barometer', designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives on top in terms of vote share, but Labour leading in terms of projected seats, despite trailing last or joint last in terms of vote share.
This assumes a uniform national swing. An analysis of the money bet in political betting markets also suggests that no party will secure a majority of the seats in the House of Commons.
Daily poll of polls
Conservative: 34 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 29 per cent
Labour: 28 per cent
PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 34 per cent
Labour: 30 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 28 per cent
Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every constituency)
Conservatives: 255 seats
Labour: 267 seats
Liberal Democrat: 97 seats
Other: 31 seats
Labour short of an overall majority by 59
Where the money is (Analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 307 seats
Labour: 224 seats
Liberal Democrat: 85 seats
Other: 34 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 19 seats
(Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)
Percentage chance of Conservative overall majority: 35.7 per cent
Percentage chance of Labour overall majority: 4.0 per cent
Percentage chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 1.5 per cent
Percentage chance of No overall majority: 58.8 per cent
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School.
