FactCheck: pre-budget report 2009
Updated on 09 December 2009
Alistair Darling's mini-budget was full of numbers, but did the facts add up? FactCheck goes to task to get to the bottom of some of those claims.
The claim
"So I am confident that the UK economy will start growing by the turn of the year."
Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer, pre-budget report speech, House of Commons, 9 December 2009.
The analysis
The most recent growth figures - for the third quarter of 2009 - showed the economy was still in decline. But Darling's confidence is supported by a prediction from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research earlier this week, which said it expected we would make a tentative return to growth in the three months leading to November.
Whether the chancellor's right about the return to growth remains to be seen, but he stands a far better chance of being proved right than the PM, who said earlier this year that we could expect good news before the pre-budget report...
The claim
"Over the year as a whole, the UK economy is expected to have contracted by 4.75 per cent this year. But as I forecast at the budget, I expect a return to growth in the fourth quarter."
Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer, pre-budget report speech, House of Commons, 9 December 2009.
The analysis
Darling also forecast in the budget that growth this year would be 3.5 per cent. Ow. Oh well.
The claim
"Next year, I forecast growth of between 1 and 1.5 per cent - as I said at the budget.
"Because of the underlying strength of our economy, the pick-up in world demand, and the substantial spare capacity opened up by the recession, my budget forecast, broadly in line with the Bank of England, of growth of 3.5 percent in 2011 and 2012 remains unchanged."
Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer, pre-budget report speech, House of Commons, 9 December 2009.
The analysis
And as we pointed out when Darling made his growth forecasts back in April at the budget, predicting the economic future is a tricky business - though we can compare his predictions with others. Back then, he was broadly in line with independent forecasters till 2010, but then seemed a fair bit more optimistic. And now?
The most recent round-up, as published monthly by the Treasury, suggests growth this year will average -4.5 per cent; slightly better than Darling's 4.75 per cent. And in 2010, when Darling forecasts between 1 and 1.5 per cent growth, the independents average at 1.4 per cent.
But then what about the comparatively booming 2011and 2012? It's 3.5 per cent growth for Darling; according to the November edition of the forecasts summary (which contains longer-term figures that the most-recent), an average of 21 independent forecasters puts growth in 2011 at just 2 per cent, and 2.3 per cent in 2012. In 2013 it's set to increase to 2.7 per cent, but still the best part of a percentage point off the Chancellor's earlier estimate.
The source
Treasury: forecasts for the UK economy
The claim
"Unemployment has risen in the UK and will keep rising for some time."
Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer, pre-budget report speech, House of Commons, 9 December 2009.
The analysis
More forecasts - but how much will it rise by? Darling doesn't say in the speech, but a table in the PBR contains the Treasury's projection for claimant unemployment (people claiming unemployment benefit): one and three-quarter million in 2009 and 2010; one and a half million in 2011 and 2012; and one and a quarter million in 2013 and 2014.
Compare these to the NAO-audited average of independent forecasters (in the same table) and things aren't quite as rosy: 1.72 million in 2009, 1.91 million in 2010, and 1.94 million in the years after.
The claim
"I can also tell the House that, from the Budget, I will cut bingo duty from 22 to 20 per cent."
Alistair Darling, Chancellor of the Exchequer, pre-budget report speech, House of Commons, 9 December 2009.
The analysis
Well the Chancellor would be the man to know. But it's worth pointing out, as @libdempress did, that the increase from 20 to 22 per cent was only announced in the budget, eight months ago. A good budget for bingo and boilers, indeed.
The source
Budget 2009
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