FactCheck: out of recession?
Updated on 28 October 2009
Gordon Brown claimed today that the government has been consistent in saying Britain would shake off the recession by the end of the year. But has he been more optimistic about our economic prospects in the past? FactCheck investigates.
The claim
"We always said that we would come out of recession by the end of this year. That has been the position that the chancellor took in his budget, and the position we have consistently took."
Gordon Brown, prime minister's questions, 28 October 2009
The background
Predicting how much the economy will grow or shrink by is an inexact science for economists, let alone politicians.
On Friday, it was confirmed that the UK was still in recession. The economy shrank by 0.4 per cent in the third quarter of this year- less of a shrink than the 0.6 per cent by which it declined in the second quarter, but a shrink nonetheless.
Yet another quarter of decline meant the recession was the longest on record, and was less optimistic than many had hoped.
The continued decline surprised many economists - but was it all part of the script for the government?
In parliament today, Gordon Brown claimed the government had been consistent in saying the country would come out of recession "by the end of this year".
"I'm not going to let him get away with that," said David Cameron, reeling off quotes to show the PM had overshot the optimism in the past.
"The PM said in September: 'we are now coming out of a recession as a result of the actions we have taken'," said Cameron.
"And he said in September, 'I think you will see figures pretty soon that show the action Britain is taking, is yielding effect'. He claimed - this was in June - this country is 'leading the rest of the world out of recession'."
The analysis
A year ago, in the pre-budget report, Chancellor Alistair Darling forecast that output would fall for the first two quarters of 2009.
"But then, because of decisions taken in this Pre-Budget Report, I expect it to start to recover," he said.
Oops. Unless the latest GDP figures undergo a dramatic revision, that's not going to happen. Still, the PBR has now been superseded as a source of predictions by the budget - which Brown calls as evidence today.
In April, Darling was more gloomy - predicting -3.5 per cent growth this year. But growth would resume, he said, "towards the end of the year".
That's consistent with Brown's claim today - so has Gordon been sticking to the script since April?
In June, the PM - fending off speculation that he wanted to sack Alistair Darling (remember that?) - said that the Chancellor was "leading the rest of the world in taking us out of recession". Quite what this means, timescale-wise, is open to debate, though Cameron poured scorn today on the basis that other countries had beaten Britain in getting back to growth.
Last month, Brown started to get far more chipper about the speed of the recovery.
On the eve of the Labour Party conference, he told Andrew Marr that: "I've led the way round the world, spent night after day persuading my colleagues around the world of the action that is necessary and we are now coming out of recession as a result of the actions that we've taken."
What's that? Coming out of recession - now? At a push, you could argue that this was referring to the global situation, rather than that of Britain.
But then, when questioned on why France and Germany are coming out of recession before Britain, Brown says:
"I think you'll see figures pretty soon that shows the action that Britain is taking yielding effect."
Pretty soon? That sounds like a distinct throw ahead to the GDP figures due in a month's time.
And if more evidence were needed, what about this, from a Five Live interview when the PM was in the USA for the G20 meeting:
"We have been looking actually at how in the pre-budget report [expected in the coming weeks] there may be extra growth that is taking place in the economy that we have got to register," he said.
Finally, how consistent has Brown's position been with the rest of the Cabinet?
Lord Mandelson warned in September that the UK could face a "double dip" recession - a recovery, followed by another slump.
"I think the signs are that it is (coming out of recession)," he said when questioned about the UK economy, "but there is always a risk of a second recessionary dip".
And Alistair Darling used a more cautious phrase in a Guardian article at the end of August, saying he was confident that the UK economy would return to growth "round the turn of the year as a result of the measures we have taken".
That still gives a bit more leeway than saying, as Brown does today, "by the end of the year".
The verdict
The official government prediction - at least until the forthcoming pre-budget report - is that Britain's economy will start to grow again "towards the end of the year".
But in recent interviews, the PM seemed more optimistic, indicating fairly clearly that things were already picking up.
Figures released last week showed the economy was still in decline, however, apparently contradicting Brown's optimism.
FactCheck rating: 3
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