Nato target Taliban and strengthen their hand
Updated on 23 February 2010
The latest capture of senior Taliban leaders is a significant Nato successes in Afghanistan - but violence still threatens to dominate the headlines. Nick Paton Walsh reports.
It is set to be a momentous fortnight for Nato, who at last appear to have wrestled the "narrative" of the insurgency from the Taliban's hands.
In a nutshell, here is their good news: an assault on their stronghold and the capture now of four senior Taliban commanders, apparently with the help of the Pakistanis. There have been significant distractions, such as the two airstrikes that killed about 39 civilians in the last week, and Afghan President Hamid Karzai's effective neutering of a key election monitoring body.
But still, there's been more news to report this last week than for quite some time that has been actively caused and sought by Nato.
The capture of Taliban leadership - first Mullah Baradar, then two local shadow governors, and today, confirmed by the Taliban to us, a commander in the east, Maulvi Kabir - might seem the most significant.
These are, on paper, significant successes; the Nato playbook says that these arrests make the rank and file think their leaders lack the savvy to evade capture, make Nato seem to have the upper hand, and perhaps strengthen their hand in future negotiations when asking the Taliban to lay down their guns.
Indeed, having several leading Taliban figures in jail must surely improve the information you have at your disposal about who to talk to and what about.
Nato's commander, Stanley McChrystal, saw great success targeting insurgent leaders when he ran special forces in Iraq. The insurgency there died down, after a lot of political deals were added into the mix. He must be hoping the same is true in Afghanistan. And enjoying the obvious kudos of picking up top Taliban like matchsticks. Nato and Obama badly need good headlines right now.
But without wanting to appear like a textbook "doom and gloom" merchant, as one friend in the British Army recently called me, there are some drawbacks to these arrests.
Firstly, and most obviously, these men will be replaced - and pretty quickly. Previous such arrests or assassinations have not stopped the insurgency building to the domineering place it is now.
Secondly - one British officer told me after a similar campaign to kill insurgent leaders in Helmand over a year ago - taking these experienced fighters out of the mix can lead to greater chaos. The leaders at least command their men at times, and can be talked to.
Their successors are often younger, and in the case of the Helmand operation I referred to, were more radical, violent, and, broadly, very hard to negotiate with. Helmand actually became a messier place - according to this interpretation - after these targeted hits.
It is impossible to really know the net effect of these arrests, and I must obviously admit that Nato generals are perhaps a lot more attuned to the reality on the ground and the details behind these arrests than I could ever be.
So hopefully for them, this is unadulterated good news. But the temptation to talk about a turning of the tide is perhaps now just too great.
The violence goes on: seven died this morning when a motorcycle bomber hit a government building in Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand, where Nato's recent offensive has been underway.
