FactCheck: £30bn Tory cuts?
Updated on 30 September 2009
Gordon Brown claimed today that the Conservatives had said they would cut spending by £30bn next year. FactCheck finds out if he's right.
The claim
"The Conservatives have said they're going to cut £30bn next year... we're spending £30bn next year."
Gordon Brown, BBC Radio 4 Today programme, 30 September 2009
The background
Earlier this year, Gordon Brown repeatedly attacked the Tories for planning cuts, claiming instead that Labour would continue to increase investment.
The PM finally uttered the "c" word - cuts - earlier this month, but the war of words over spending and slashing continues.
The party conference season may feel like the unofficial start to the election campaign, but there are many policy details still to be fleshed out.
This morning Brown claimed that the Tories are planning £30bn spending cuts next year. Let's check the numbers.
The analysis
The Tories have made no secret of their desire to squeeze spending in the face of the ballooning budget deficit, but they told us they haven't put a figure on exactly how much by next year.
So where did Labour's £30bn figure come from?
Labour has increased spending in the face of the recession, with things set to tighten further down the line.
The government's spending plans - as set out in the budget - have total public spending at £671bn this year. Next year (2010-11) this is set to rise to £701bn - a £30bn increase.
Labour pointed out that the Tories have attacked this increase in no uncertain terms. Shadow Chancellor George Osborne told Andrew Marr on 6 September: "Well I'm clear that in the next financial year, in the year 2010 onwards, it is not acceptable to go ahead with a £30bn increase in public spending."
Earlier this month, Cameron made a speech on cutting the cost of politics, which outlined some headline-friendly measures, including reducing the number of MPs and scrapping subsidised Commons food. But these were pretty small change in budget deficit terms - the Tories estimated the saving would be £120m.
Cameron was clear that this was just the start, however, spelling out that spending would be not just "reduced in growth, not frozen - but cut". He specifically attacked Labour's planned £30bn increase next year as "unaffordable".
So does this mean it's fair for Labour to say the Tories will cut spending by £30bn next year?
There are two other factors to bear in mind. The first - which cropped up time and time again in the 2005 election campaign - is how you define a cut.
If spending goes down from one year to the next, that's pretty unarguably a cut. But what if a party simply chooses to spend less than had been pencilled in?
Back when the economy was blossoming, the Tories wanted to "share the proceeds of growth", i.e. reduce spending by less than the rate of growth in the economy. This would have meant that spending increased, but by less of an increase than Labour was planning. Still, Labour branded these as cuts.
The second point worth noting is exactly what the £30bn increase covers. It's far from the case that Labour is splurging an extra £30bn on public services, more than two thirds of the increase goes on the rising costs of economic downturn.
The budget predicts that debt interest payments will increase by £15.7bn next year. Spending on benefits will also go up by £6.2bn. The government has pretty limited wriggle room on these numbers.
So it wouldn't just be painless for the Tories to scrap Labour's £30bn increase in spending; they would end up having to cut other areas to make up the increased cost of debt interest and, short of a quick and major reform, benefit payments.
The verdict
Labour wants to increase spending by £30bn next year - two thirds of which is made up of the rising costs of servicing debt interest and paying benefits.
The Tories have attacked this increase. It's debatable whether scrapping an increase is the same as a clear £30bn cut, although in this case, the fixed nature of the likes of debt interest costs means there would have to be inevitable cuts elsewhere to keep spending on an even keel from this year to the next.
The Tories have also said they will cut spending in the future, rather than just freezing it.
So we quibble with Brown's statement on the basis that the Tories haven't said they will cut spending by £30bn next year - it's a figure that Labour has come up with rather than the Tories. But based on what the Tories have said, it's not a complete misrepresentation, either.
FactCheck rating: 2
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The sources
Full Budget 2009
David Cameron's speech, 6 September 2009
George Osborne on Andrew Marr
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