Poll of polls: latest election forecast
Updated on 21 April 2010
The Lib Dems are on top in the poll of polls and while the Labour outlook is grim a telephone pollster gives the Tories cheer. Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, of Nottingham Business School's Political Forecasting Unit, explains.
There are three national polls out today based on the most recent fieldwork. Taken together, they show the Liberal Democrats on top, one of them (YouGov for the Sun) by as much as three points.
Better news for the Conservatives is a ComRes poll, for ITV and the Independent, which shows them a full 9 points clear of the Liberal Democrats and Labour. Fieldwork for this telephone poll was, however, conducted on Sunday and Monday, half of the fieldwork for which was included in yesterday’s ComRes poll, while the other three polls published today were conducted a day later. The picture for Labour is at the moment uniformly bleak.
Taking an average of the latest polling puts the Liberal Democrats on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 32 pr cent and Labour on 26 per cent. The Conservatives will be hoping that the ComRes poll is not an outlier. Adding this into the mix would reverse top place with the Liberal Democrats.
Polling Commentary
There are three national polls out today based on fieldwork conducted yesterday and Monday.
Angus Reid/PB: Lib Dem 33, Con 32, Lab 23
Populus/Times: Con 32, Lib Dem 31, Lab 28
YouGov/Sun: Lib Dem 34, Con 31, Lab 26
There is also a ComRes poll, for ITV and the Independent, which shows the Conservatives on 35 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats and Labour on 26 per cent. Fieldwork for this poll was conducted a day earlier, starting on Sunday, half of which was included in yesterday’s ComRes poll. While this poll is not included in today’s poll of polls, which reflects the very latest polling, it is included in our polling tracker.
Taking an average of the latest polling, today’s poll of polls puts the Liberal Democrats on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 32 per cent and Labour on 26 per cent. Assuming a uniform national swing, Labour would on this basis win 247 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservatives 239 seats and the Liberal Democrats 132 seats. This would leave Labour 79 short of an overall majority.
The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' currently has the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats tied for top place on 32 per cent, with Labour on 27 per cent. Reproduced as a uniform swing across the country, this would put Labour on 262 seats, the Conservatives on 236 seats and the Liberal Democrats on 121 seats. The markets agree that no one party is likely to win a majority in the House of Commons.
The Political Forecasting Unit polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares. There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.
Election barometer
The Political Forecasting Unit's 'election barometer', designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Liberal Democrats on top by one point over the Conservatives based on an average of the very latest polling, but the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats tied on the Polling Tracker. Labour is trailing on both measures in terms of vote share, but would still win most seats, assuming a uniform national swing.
An analysis of the money bet in political betting markets also suggests that no party will secure a majority of the seats in the House of Commons.
Daily poll of polls
Liberal Democrat: 33 per cent
Conservative: 32 per cent
Labour: 26 per cent
PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 32 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 32 per cent
Labour: 27 per cent
Outcome (Based on polling tracker, assuming national swing reproduced in every constituency)
Conservatives: 236 seats
Labour: 262 seats
Liberal Democrat: 121 seats
Other: 31 seats
Labour short of an overall majority by 64.
Where the money is (Analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 305 seats
Labour: 228 seats
Liberal Democrat: 84 seats
Other: 33 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 21 seats.
% chance of Conservative overall majority: 35.5 per cent
% chance of Labour overall majority: 3.5 per cent
% chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 1.7 per cent
% chance of No overall majority: 59.3 per cent
(Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)
Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School.
