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Poll of Polls: all agreed on a hung parliament

By Channel 4 News

Updated on 29 April 2010

With exactly a week until voters go to the polls, the polls are offering very mixed messages. All are agreed, however, that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome. Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, of Nottingham Business School's Political Forecasting Unit, explains.

There are three polls out today, and they tell very different stories. The latest, based on fieldwork completed yesterday afternoon, by YouGov for the Sun, puts the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 31 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent.

ComRes has a rolling poll out, based on 500 interviews conducted on Tuesday to add to 500 from Monday, so part of this survey was reported yesterday. This paints a very different picture to that of YouGov, adding a couple of points to the Tories and Labour, at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

The headline results, however, are pretty similar to what ComRes reported exactly a week ago. Harris for the Metro has the Conservatives on 32 per cent, the Lib Dems on 30 per cent and Labour on 25 per cent. So make of these what you will!

There is also a poll out, by ICM for Guardian, of some key marginals in which the Liberal Democrats have a live interest. In a survey of opinion in 42 seats in which the Lib Dems came second in 2005, ICM put Nick Clegg’s party on 39 per cent, up four since 2005, with the Conservatives on 35 per cent (down one) and Labour on 18 per cent. This represents a swing from both Labour and the Tories to the Lib Dems, though the Labour vote seems most vulnerable, down five points since 2005.

Polling Commentary
There are three new national polls out, which show the Conservatives on 36, 34 and 32 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 31, 30 and 26 per cent, and Labour on 29, 27 and 25 per cent.

Taking a raw average of today’s polls puts the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 29 per cent, and Labour on 27 per cent. Our polling tracker, which weights the polls, puts the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 30 per cent and Labour 27 per cent.

The raw figures are portrayed in today's Poll of Polls, so treat the headline numbers with caution.

Today's polls
ComRes/ITV/Independent: Con 36, Lab 29, Lib Dem 26
Harris/Metro: Con 32, Lib Dem 30, Lab 25
YouGov/Sun: Con 34, Lib Dem 31, Lab 27

Today's poll of polls, based on these surveys, puts the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 29 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent.

Polling 'tracker'
The Political Forecasting Unit 'polling tracker' has the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 30 per cent and Labour on 27 per cent.

The polling tracker is based on recent surveys by different polling organisations, and is adjusted so that the more recent the survey the more weight is attached to the vote shares.

There is also some statistical smoothing which has the effect that outliers or vote shares that diverge most from the general consensus are allocated less weight.

Assuming a uniform national swing, the Conservatives would win 262 seats in the House of Commons, Labour would win 256 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 101 seats. This would leave the Conservatives 64 short of an overall majority.

The markets agree that no one party is likely to win a majority in the House of Commons.

Applying a more sophisticated seats projection methodology, which we term ANS (Adjusted National Swing), which allows for the differential impact of swing on different seats, the Political Forecasting Unit projects the following scenario if the election were held today:

Conservatives: 275 seats
Labour: 234 seats
Liberal Democrat: 106 seats
Others: 35 seats

Election barometer
The Political Forecasting Unit's 'election barometer', designed to capture the changing state of the race as it unfolds through the campaign, shows the Conservatives on 34 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 30 per cent, with Labour on 27 per cent.

This means a hung parliament remains a strong possibility.

On these figures, the Political Forecasting Unit's ANS (adjusted national swing) methodology projects the following seats distribution: Con: 275 seats, Lab 253 seats, Lib Dem 106 seats.

An analysis of the money placed in political betting markets also suggests that no party will secure a majority of the seats in the House of Commons.

Daily poll of polls
Conservative: 34 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 29 per cent
Labour: 27 per cent

PFU polling tracker (recent polls, weighted)
Conservative: 34 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 30 per cent
Labour: 27 per cent

Outcome, based on polling tracker, assuming national swing (adjusted) reproduced in every constituency.
Conservatives: 275 seats
Labour: 234 seats
Liberal Democrat: 106 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 51

Where the money is (analysis based on money wagered on the election in political betting markets)
Conservative: 312 seats
Labour: 210 seats
Liberal Democrat: 93 seats
Other: 35 seats
Conservatives short of an overall majority by 14 seats

Percentage chances of a majority
Chance of Conservative overall majority: 38.4 per cent
Chance of Labour overall majority: 2.3 per cent
Chance of Liberal Democrat overall majority: 1.3 per cent
Chance of No overall majority: 58.0 per cent
(Chances based on odds from betting exchanges)

Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams is Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School.

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