How would a Cameron government stack up?
Updated on 07 May 2010
David Cameron will explain this afternoon how he thinks he can form a government. Can he do it without formal Lib Dem support? How will the other parties stack up?
David Cameron says the government should be "strong and stable with broad support, that acts in the national interest".
But with no chance of an overall majority, can he reach the magic number by cobbling together the right assortment of partners?
Any party even attempting to form a government must be in a position to pass a budget - the defeat of a finance bill is tantamount to a no confidence vote.
So Mr Cameron's promise to make £6bn immediate cuts from public spending is likely to be at stake.
Con-Lib deal
The most stable coalition would be the Conservatives plus the Lib Dems.
But Mr Clegg can't just agree to this by himself, even in conjunction with his cabinet.
He's bound by his party's highly complicated "triple lock" system - which kicks in if there's a "substantial proposal which could affect the party's independence of political action".
A formal alliance, then, would need the support of three-quarters of the Lib Dem parliamentary party and its ruling federal executive.
In the absence of that, the party has to convene a special conference, which needs a two-thirds majority in favour - or all Lib Dem members get a vote. And who knows how long all that would take.
We should note here that Lord Ashdown has insisted there have been no formal discussions or talks with the Tories, and, he said the Conservatives didn't have "a mandate to ram their manifesto down this country's throat, and I hope Mr Cameron understands that".
And of course, there's really no chance that the Conservatives will suddenly embrace a move towards electoral reform - and that's the bottom line for the Lib Dems.
Latest word from Downing Street is that Brown will try to talk to the Lib Dems about a pact - with a referendum on PR.
Tory deal with other parties
Could Cameron do a deal with any of the other parties?
The lone Green MP, Caroline Lucas, is highly unlikely to vote with the Tories, given her party's commitment to provide "a real voice speaking out against the cuts to public services, for equality and for a greener and more sustainable economy" - which hardly fits with the Tory platform.
The SNP leader Alex Salmond has explicity ruled out a deal with David Cameron.
Earlier today Salmond said his party and Plaid Cymru have accepted invitation to discuss poss future government with Brown.
He said: "Fate seems to have dealt us a mighty hand between ourselves and Plaid Cymru.
"As I understand it, on the projection we have at the present moment, certainly there would have to be some involvement of the SNP and Plaid Cymru, if you were to get and construct an alternative government scenario.
"So for that reason, I'm accepting the offer of the Prime Minister, on behalf of the SNP, and Plaid Cymru are accepting, to have the Civil Service back-up to have discussions to see what the possibilities are in terms of defending the interests of Scotland and Wales in this parliamentary situation."
The cost to the Tories of Plaid Cymru's support would be another £300m of funding for Wales - again, highly unlikely.
The British National Party failed to win a single Westminster seat, with leader Nick Griffin trailing third in the Barking poll.
In the local elections for Barking and Dagenham council, the BNP lost all 12 of the seats it had gained in 2006, leaving Labour firmly holding the local authority with all 51 seats.
So it's over to Northern Ireland - minus of course the SDLP, who traditionally take the Labour whip, and the new Alliance member Naomi Long.
The Conservatives were formally allied with the UUP - which has turned into something of a disaster for them, as the UUP failed to win a single seat.
There is one potential MP there - Rodney Conor - who, if he wins the recount in Fermanagh/South Tyrone has pledged to vote with the Conservatives, except on Northern Ireland issues.
That leaves the Democratic Unionists with their eight seats - who've kept their options surprisingly open.
It's interesting to note they reacted somewhat favourably to overtures two days ago from Gordon Brown, who promised to maintain the size of this year's block grant to Northern Ireland - and they accused the Tories of planning to make savage cuts to the province's public spending.
Now, though, that could all be back in the mix - as those eight votes could prove very handy for Mr Cameron.
