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20 Jan 2025

What will Trump’s second term mean for world order?

Presenter

We’re in Davos, the mountain top town in Switzerland where business and political leaders meet each year to – as they see it – try to improve the state of the world.

This year they’ve got a problem: because Donald Trump has made clear he’s not interested in the old world order delegates here used to preside over. We’ve been taking the temperature about what Trump 2.0 means for the global economy and security.

Cathy Newman: I sat down with Davos regular Ian Bremmer, an American political scientist, author and entrepreneur. And I began by asking whether the global business and political elite of Davos were feeling rather left out in the cold as the new US president forges a new world order without them.

Ian Bremmer: He’s not just forging a new world order. Donald Trump is actually unravelling the old world order, which was an American world order. I mean, it was the United States ‘what done it’ after World War Two and after the Soviet Union collapsed. And so it’s really unheard of that, you know, a country would work to undo its own order. Usually you look to undo somebody else’s order. Americans, not just Trump, but lots of Americans are really not aligned with the idea of the US providing collective security or promoting global free trade architecture, and rule of law and democracy. Right. They don’t accept that. And Trump is the principle, both symptom and beneficiary, of that reality.

Cathy Newman: He’s a man who’s talked about taking over Greenland or Panama. Do you think the world is less safe today with him in the White House?

Ian Bremmer: You know, I don’t think a Gaza deal gets done if Harris is the president right now.

Cathy Newman: So Trump’s a peacemaker.

Ian Bremmer: I think the fact that Trump was willing to put credible pressure on both Israel and Hamas if they did not accept his terms, was meaningful. And there are people that have been freed today that would still be hostages in Gaza or would still be prisoners in Israel were it not for Donald Trump. And I think that there is a greater likelihood that we will eventually, not soon, but eventually maybe this year, get to a ceasefire in Russia because of Donald Trump. Having said that, Trump is breaking a lot of furniture and a lot of that furniture is how we collectively as human beings try to govern our collective selves. Imperfectly and very fragmented, but nonetheless. And that willingness to break a US led global order long term is going to create far more vulnerability, far more damage…what Trump has done is brought the world to what I call a G-0, not a G-7, not a G-20, but a lack of global leadership. A return to the law of the jungle where the strong do what they will, and the US is the apex predator, but the weak do what they must, and that we cannot trust that powerful institutions and governments are actually going to exercise their authority over the less powerful with responsibility. And that’s, I think, a horribly dangerous place for the world to go.

Cathy Newman: Just finally, Donald Trump has addressed Davos in person.

Ian Bremmer: We’ve been here.

Cathy Newman: Yeah. He’s doing so virtually, though, this time. I mean, is this place just a little bit irrelevant now?

Ian Bremmer: I think it’s possible he shows up in person and surprises everybody. You know, I think..

Cathy Newman: He hates it here.

Ian Bremmer: He doesn’t love it, but he loves getting his ass kissed by CEOs. And the fact is, last time he came here, that was what he enjoyed. So there’s a big party going on and he’s missing it. Lots of heads of state he’s missing. I mean, now that he’s president, I would not, let’s put it this way, I wouldn’t be shocked if Davos is a little bit different towards the end of the week.