3 Jul 2024

What to watch out for on election night

Data Correspondent and Presenter

Many high-profile Conservatives are at risk of losing their seats, giving us the prospect of many so-called Portillo moments on Thursday night. Our Data Correspondent Ciaran Jenkins has been looking at which constituencies to watch out for as the results come in.


The reason some Conservatives are sounding so downbeat about election night is the polls.


As of yesterday, Labour were on 40% and the Tories on 22%, in an average of recent polls from the website Politico. There has been a slight narrowing in the last few days, but it is still an eye-opening lead on the eve of a general election.

When it comes to the number of seats, we analysed a range of MRP ‘super polls’, from May 31st to July 2. These polls try to work out how many seats each party will win, and they all predicted a Labour majority. This ranges from 114 to a huge 382 seats. The average Labour majority in these polls is 258 seats. That’s far bigger than Labour’s landslide majority in 1997, of 179 seats.

Looking ahead to the day of the election itself, when polls close at 10pm, the first results should be in before midnight.

By 3am on Friday, some key battlegrounds are set to come in. How Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch fares in Essex North West will be a sign of how the Conservatives’ night is going. We’ll also see if Labour can re-take Rochdale, lost in a by-election just four months ago to George Galloway, from the Workers Party of Britain.

Between 3am and 4am, many eyes will be focused on the fate of a number of senior Conservatives. They include Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash, who could become the first sitting Chancellor ever to lose his seat in a general election. When it comes to Scotland, will the SNP win? Glasgow’s six seats will be telling. Labour is targeting them all, including the SNP’s David Linden in Glasgow East.

There are a number of subplots to keep an eye on as well. Will former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, now standing as an Independent, be re-elected in Islington North? And will Green co-leader Carla Denyer unseat Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire in Bristol Central, which is a key target for her party. While in the East Belfast showdown, will the MP be DUP Leader Gavin Robinson, or Alliance leader Naomi Long.

One of the biggest moments of the night is set to happen between 4am and 5am, when we should find out if Nigel Farage and his Reform Party have taken Clacton from the Conservatives. At the same time the Conservatives are set to learn how they have fared in Scotland and Wales. Welsh Secretary David TC Davies in particular, is under threat from Labour in Monmouthshire.

By 5am to 7am it will be clear if the polls were right. It will also be an interesting time for former Prime Minister Liz Truss, who should find out then if she has held Norfolk South West. All this, as the country emerges bleary eyed to learn if it has indeed been an historic night.

For a full list of candidates in all these seats, see below:


Essex North West

Kemi Badenoch, Conservative Party

Erik Bonino, Independent

Edward Vernon Gildea, Green Party

Andrew David Green, Independent

Niko Omilana, Independent

Smita Rajesh, Liberal Democrats

Grant John Maxwell StClair-Armstrong, Reform UK

Issy Waite, Labour Party



Paul Simon Ellison, Conservatives

George Galloway, Workers Party

Michael Howard, Reform UK

Andy Kelly, Liberal Democrats

Martyn Savin, Green Party

Paul Waugh, Labour and Co-operative Party


Godalming and Ash

Graham Richard Drage, Reform UK

Paul David Follows, Liberal Democrats

Jeremy Hunt, Conservative Party

Ruby Tucker, Green Party

James Lawrence Walsh, Labour Party

Harriet Williams, Women’s Equality Party


Glasgow East

Matthew James Clark, Scottish Liberal Democrats

John Grady, Scottish Labour Party

Thomas Jordan Kerr, Scottish Conservative and Unionist

Amy Kettyles, Scottish Greens

David Linden, Scottish National Party

Liam McLaughlan, Scottish Socialist Party

Donnie McLeod, Reform UK


Islington North

Vikas Aggarwal, Liberal Democrats

Jeremy Corbyn, Independent

Karen Anne Harries, Conservative Party

Paul Dominic Josling, Independent

Sheridan Kates, Green Party

Praful Nargund, Labour Party

Martyn John Nelson, Reform UK


Bristol Central

Robert Vernon Clarke, Reform UK

Nicholas John Coombes, Liberal Democrats

Thangam Elizabeth Rachel Debbonaire, Labour Party

Carla Denyer, Green Party

Kellie-Jay Keen, Party of Women

Samuel Williams, Conservative Party


Belfast East

Séamus De Faoite, SDLP

Naomi Long, Alliance Party

Ryan North, Independent

Gavin Robinson, Democratic Unionist Party

John Ross, TUV

Brian Smyth, Green Party Northern Ireland

Ryan Warren, Ulster Unionist Party



Matthew Bensilum, Liberal Democrats

Nigel Paul Farage, Reform UK

Craig Jamieson, Climate Party

Tony Mack, Independent

Natasha Osben, Green Party

Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Labour Party

Tasos Papanastasiou, Heritage Party

Andrew Pemberton, UKIP

Giles Francis Watling, Conservative Party



Ioan Rhys Bellin, Plaid Cymru

Ian Chandler, Green Party

David Thomas Charles Davies, Welsh Conservative Party

June Davies, True & Fair Party

Catherine Ann Fookes, Welsh Labour

Owen Lewis, Independent

Emma Meredith, Heritage Party

William Denston Powell, Welsh Liberal Democats

Max Windsor-Peplow, Reform UK


Norfolk South West

James Bagge, Independent

Gary Daniel Dominick Conway, Heritage Party

Pallavi Devulapalli, Green Party

Lorraine Douglas, Communist Party of Britain

Terry Jermy, Labour Party

Tobias McKenzie, Reform UK

Earl Elvis of East Anglia, Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Josie Ratcliffe, Liberal Democrats

Liz Truss, Conservative Party