What chance of success for Middle East peace talks?

On the face of it, it sounds good. Today the US Secretary of State announced that the Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and the Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, will start direct negotiations in Washington on 1 September.

Talks, dinner, then more talks. So we’re back to the “peace process”, the path to what the Americans describe as “two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace.”

And yet, what are the real chances of success?

It is 20 months since they last talked, during which time the Israelis have bombed Gaza, and Palestinian militants have launched sporadic rockets into Israel. The Israeli government has continued to expand Jewish settlements in Jerusalem; Hamas has continued to govern in Gaza, refusing to change its charter to accept Israel’s existence.

The Americans are touting this as a victory for their diplomacy – George Mitchell, President Obama’s envoy, has spent 18 months trying to persuade the two parties to talk. There’ll be talks and dinner in Washington, hand-shakes and smiles.

And then what? I’d guess, not a lot. There is no pressure on the Israeli government to do a deal. Now they have built a wall separating them from the West Bank, there is little danger of suicide bombers coming in, so there is no public clamour for peace – in day to day terms, most Israelis already have it.

Mr Netanyahu’s coalition includes settlers who are unlikely to agree a freeze on settlements, and if they desert him, his government falls. A peace deal would require Israel to dismantle some settlements, and possibly relinquish full control of Jerusalem, something no insecure, right-wing Israeli leader would relish.

As for President Abbas, what mandate does he have to speak for the Palestinians? His term was supposed to expire last year, and many Palestinians no longer recognise him as a legitimate leader.

Hamas won elections in Gaza in 2005, but they are not involved in the peace talks because both the Israelis and the Americans regard them as terrorists. So even if President Abbas were to agree a deal, could it be implemented?

President Obama needs some kind of foreign policy success, so that’s why the Americans are talking this up. But we’ve been far further down the road than this before, and it’s all come to nothing.