3 Jan 2011

The world in 2011

International Editor Lindsey Hilsum looks ahead at the key events that could shape world affairs in 2011.

Predictions are dangerous, but here are some thoughts about what to watch out for in 2011.

NEW WORLD ORDER
It’s coming… but we don’t know how fast. As China becomes more assertive diplomatically, a weak US administration is consumed by a wavering economy, social and political problems at home and the inconclusive war in Afghanistan.

WATCH:
–  The 10th anniversary of 9/11, and the promised start of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer.
–  The most dangerous failed states, Yemen and Somalia, and the one which constantly teeters on the brink – Pakistan.
–  India, a player in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and a rival to China, but held back by internal conflicts, and a new corruption scandal which could bring down the Congress government.
The border between North and South Korea – potentially the most dangerous flashpoint in the world in 2011.

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT
Organised crime and new technology increasingly influence international relations, and they’re coming together as a new source of strife and instability.

WATCH:
Cyber-crime, cyber-spying, cyber-war and hacker-attacks – all will increase in 2011.
Corruption. The US and the UK are introducing new legislation to clamp down on western companies indulging in corrupt activities overseas.
Drug wars. With extreme violence sweeping Mexico, the drugs trade is beginning to distort political, social and economic life across Latin America.

MONEY MAKES THE WORLD GO ROUND
As western economies falter, others are doing pretty well.

WATCH:
European economies struggling, the euro weakening, and Europe’s engagement elsewhere in the world diminishing as a result.
The buoyant oil price which strengthens Vladimir Putin in Russia, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela.

PLUS CA CHANGE…
Plus c’est la meme chose. In the Middle East, everything and everyone seems stuck.

WATCH:
Economic development in the West Bank, and political stasis in Israel which relieves the pressure on either side to make peace.
Iran. But nothing much is likely to happen.  The government has suppressed the Green Movement, and the nuclear programme has seemingly slowed down.
Egypt. Christmas has seen a spate of killings of Christians. President Mubarak says he will run for re-election in September, despite being 82, but how long can he cling on?

AFRICA’S DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
A series of some 20 elections could call into question the western-backed democracy project, which seems to lead to a lot of bloodshed.

WATCH:
Ivory Coast, already on fire, as defeated President Laurent Gbagbo refuses to relinquish power.
South Sudan voting in January on whether to secede from the north. The best probable outcome is a peaceful separation; the worst could be war, and a forced exodus of southerners from the north.
Elections in Nigeria, Uganda and Zimbabwe

PREDICTIONS
International Crisis Group – Next Year’s Wars
Reuters – Perilous predictions for 2011