14 May 2014

#Publishthepoll: accusation Scot independence data buried

Four months from the Scottish referendum, accusations fly that Westminster has “buried” a poll which shows increasing support for the yes campaign – but can the source of these allegations be trusted?

Scottish flag in Westminster (Getty)

A letter sent to the Sunday Herald claimed that the UK government’s Cabinet Office had supressed the poll “as it returned a result which shows the yes vote was soaring.”

The letter was sent by “Kelly Brown, Edinburgh”, who claimed she was an employee of Ipsos Mori, which carried out the poll. However, Ipsos Mori has denied employing anyone called Kelly Brown.

Uncertainty around the source has not deterred people on Twitter however, and a hashtag campaign – #PublishThePoll – has been trending in the UK.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond also jumped on the bandwagon – saying that keeping the poll secret was “totally unacceptable”.

“No matter how uncomfortable the results may be for Westminster and the no campaign, they now have to publish this poll’s findings,” he said.

“The polls overall show that all the momentum is with the campaign for an independent Scotland, as more and more people plan to vote yes in September.”

And Scottish MP Angus MacNeil raised the issue in parliament, suggesting the research had cost £50,000 of public money and as such should be published.

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg responded: “I’ve learnt to try and be a bit wary about opinion polls. The only poll that counts is the poll that’s going to happen on September 18.”

The Cabinet Office has denied a request from Channel 4 News to reveal the findings of its polls into Scottish independence – and said it is “not usual practice” to reveal the findings of its research, which it says was always intended to be internal only.

A Cabinet Office spokesman said: “The UK government is firmly committed to Scotland’s ongoing place in the United Kingdom. It is essential that we do research to identify the information that people require to help them make an informed decision, and how best to provide it, and this work is ongoing.

“It is not usual practice to publish internal research.”

A poll by Channel 4 News, published on 1 May, revealed that 51 per cent of Scottish people intend to vote for Scotland to stay a part of the UK, 37 per cent will vote for independence, and 12 per cent do not know.

The Sunday Herald letter: "Congratulations to the Sunday Herald for coming out and announcing your support for a Yes vote. Extremely timely too, given that a recent poll commissioned by the Cabinet Office was 'buried' as it returned a result which showed the Yes vote was soaring.
The poll was held by my employer, Ipsos Mori, and I can say with some confidence that all the scare stories and smears have virtually no influence – indeed, it appears it sways the undecided towards the Yes side.
Kelly Brown, Edinburgh"