Unlike a recent survey showing the two sides almost neck and neck, 58 per cent of Scottish people would vote no to independence, according to a YouGov poll for Channel 4 News.
The poll for Channel 4 News on the Scottish referendum shows that while 42 per cent intend to vote “yes” to independence, 58 per cent are still in the “no” camp – despite what has been criticised by many as a lacklustre campaign, unlikely interventions by David Bowie notwithstanding.
These figures strip out the “don’t know” votes and people who say they will not vote, which currently represent 12 per cent of those polled. Taking these into account, 37 per cent say they will vote yes and 51 per cent say they will vote no to the question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
The new poll is a stronger result for those who want the United Kingdom to stay just that – united – compared to other recent results suggesting the two camps are much closer. But “Better Together” campaign should not breathe easy just yet.
Our poll with YouGov also shows that 49 per cent of voters say they feel mostly Scottish with just 14 per cent saying they feel predominantly British, which suggests that even if independence is defeated this time that will almost certainly not be the end of the issue.
For those voting “yes” to independence, 60 per cent say it is because they dislike what Britain has become – specifically the Thatcher years and the Blair years. But 35 per cent say they actually like Britain – but they still want independence.
And one of the commonest electoral issues – voter apathy – doesn’t look likely to be a problem for the referendum: 82 per cent of those polled said they were “absolutely certain to vote”.
YouGov polled 1208 people of different ages, genders, ages and class for Channel 4 News. Watch tonight at 7pm for more coverage on the Scottish independence debate, with Jon Snow presenting live from Glasgow.