Public concerned about lack of control over asylum, says think tank director

We spoke to Sunder Katwala, Director of British Future, a non-partisan think tank that works on immigration and integration issues.

Ciaran Jenkins: I’m just picking up on Keir Starmer’s language there, accusing the Conservatives of being the party of open borders. Given that language, what level of migration, net migration do you think the public will be willing to accept?

Sunder Katwala: Well, he’s got a reasonable point that this is the immigration numbers for the week before the general election. So this is the final score of the old government. He’s got a reasonable point that the last government made promises that were the opposite of what happened. But I think he should be careful with his language about open borders. We didn’t have open borders. We had tighter EU migration, very open non EU migration by design, quite a draconian asylum system, a very welcoming policy to Ukrainians and refugees.

In terms of the overall number, the adjustments today show you why setting a net migration target doesn’t work. You know the number of visas. You don’t know the level of emigration, so your net migration target doesn’t work. You can look at each of the flows that you have. The public feel the same dilemmas as the politicians. The public think the numbers are high and put pressures on housing. The public don’t want to cut immigration for the NHS, for social care, for university students. So there is a balance to be struck there and you should take the public more seriously, by actually engaging them in the debate about the pressures and gains and the choices that we make.

Ciaran Jenkins: You raise housing though, and you also think Keir Starmer shouldn’t set a target. If you don’t set a target for net migration, how do you know how many houses you need to build?

Sunder Katwala: Well, there’s a lesson here, which is if you want to keep your promises, don’t make promises you can’t keep. Keir Starmer has said he’s going to have immigration lower than he’s inherited. Well, he’s been given a very high ceiling by the Conservatives. Net 700,000. What I would do is have an immigration plan in parliament for three years, have an annual day that looks like the budget and be held to account because for the last 14 years there was a slogan and a policy. There was no accountability about how the numbers were going. If it’s higher than you are expecting, tell us what you would do with the tax receipts. If you’re trying to reduce it by increasing skills, tell us how it’s going. If you decided to have a policy, and Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party supported the Ukraine policy, and the Hong Kong policy for very good reasons. If you’re going to have a policy that increases it, then tell us about how we’re managing it.

Ciaran Jenkins: I’m sorry to cut in there, but we haven’t got much time left. I suppose the question is, every time you pull one of those big levers, there’s a risk that for universities, for instance, you know, how do you go back to 2019 levels for universities. That would be financially ruinous?

Sunder Katwala: So everyone supported the graduate visa and high student migration. We should make sure we’re handling it well. So the public are sceptical about reducing specific visas while they worry about the numbers. So let’s have a serious debate about the choices we make and how we manage it well. On the whole, the public concern is highest about the visible lack of control of asylum. Even though people were very welcoming of the Ukraine scheme, the Hong Kong scheme and the managed system. So managing asylum better is really important. But let’s take the dilemmas of control seriously instead of having slogans and policies that aren’t met. Keir Starmer I think, is going to see net migration fall to levels more like the historic level, net 400,000 or so. He should be careful that he’s not perceived to be held up to Nigel Farage’s policy by telling us what his own policy is.