7m
16 Jan 2025

Peace negotiator ‘very sceptical’ of ceasefire implementation

Presenter

We spoke to Nomi Bar-Yaacov, an international peace negotiator with decades of experience in conflict management.

Cathy Newman: Nomi, the Americans seem very confident. Are you as optimistic as they are?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: I’m fairly confident that the deal will pass, the ceasefire will start on Sunday the 19th. But I’m very sceptical about the implementation and how long the ceasefire will last. Last time it lasted seven days and I hope it will last through three phases. But I think there is an awful lot to be overcome and plenty of opportunity for breaches. And the question is, will the implementation mechanism, the monitoring mechanism, work? Will there be good faith by the parties? Lots of questions.

Cathy Newman: And the biggest questions, I guess, after phase one, in phase two, once the hostages are released, Netanyahu will be under pressure to resume the war and finish the job that he set out, which hasn’t been completed, has it?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: Yes. You’re already jumping in there, past 42 days. I’m quite sceptical even how the 42 days will go. The first phase is 42, with the really dribs and drabs, the three hostages to be released once a week, and with a very large number in the last week. So that’s after five weeks. I hope that we will get there, but I would not be surprised if the timing sort of extends. I think the big question really is will President-elect Donald Trump continue to exercise the leverage that he has been in forcing Netanyahu’s hand. And I’m pretty confident that Qatar and Egypt will keep an eye on Hamas.

Cathy Newman: Right, we’ll come back to Trump in a minute, who, of course, claimed credit for this deal. But does this deal represent a victory for Netanyahu, given his stated aim originally was to destroy Hamas?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: I don’t think it is any victory for anyone here. I think you’ve got many hostages dead. Many bodies have returned. Many bodies will return and no-one can claim victory here. I think it’s been a total and utter catastrophe – 47,000 Palestinian dead, at least, many buried under the rubble. The whole strip has been destroyed.

Cathy Newman: Sixty per cent of buildings.

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: More than 80% in the north. And I think it’s going to take decades to rebuild, and I think there’s definitely no victory for anyone.

Cathy Newman: Let’s talk about Donald Trump, who obviously comes in on Monday. He’s claiming credit for this deal. Is there some truth to that, do you think?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: Yes, absolutely. Because this deal was on the table in May and could have been agreed in May had President Biden used the same leverage that President Trump has exercised now. President Trump sent his special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to deliver a message on the holy day to the Jews, the Sabbath, to Prime Minister Netanyahu, and basically said, forget all your red lines, Mr Prime Minister, you need to sign the dotted line, this is what the president wants. And this is what the prime minister did.

Cathy Newman: So beyond that, what do you think a Trump presidency, a second presidency, will mean for the Middle East?

Nomi Bar-Yaacov: I don’t think anyone knows. I don’t think that Donald Trump knows himself. And I think we all need to brace for what may happen. He’s rather unpredictable. He’s transactional. He doesn’t really read very much. He’s not particularly knowledgeable in the Middle East. And I don’t know that it’s necessarily clear who he’s going to listen to. He tends to listen to the last person who whispers in his ear.