7 Feb 2015

Is Nick Clegg on course to lose his seat?

Nick Clegg will lose his seat at the general election in May if a poll by respected Conservative pollster Lord Ashcroft remains true.

Lord Ashcroft released revised data from November on his blog today, suggesting that the deputy prime minister is trailing his Labour challenger, Oliver Coppard, by three percentage points.

The data suggests that Labour is polling at 30 per cent in Sheffield Hallam, compared with the Liberal Democrats on 27 per cent.

The Conservative Party are polling 19 per cent, Ukip 13 per cent and the green Party 10 per cent.

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Labour is running a “decapitate” strategy in Sheffield Hallam in a bid to unseat the Liberal Democrat leader.

Earlier in the week a poll commissioned by the Unite trade union, which backs Labour, said Nick Clegg was trailing his labour rival by 10 per cent. Mr Clegg dismissed this poll as “utter, utter bilge”.

Thanet South clash

However, the latest polling data will be a cause of concern.

Lord Ashcroft updated the November results after discovering a “mistake in the data”. He said the poll, and two others, had been carried out by a firm that “I will not be using again”.

The other polls concerned Thanet South, where Ukip leader Nigel Farage is standing, and Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North constituency.

In Thanet South, Lord Ashcroft said, the new results suggest the battle is muich tighter between the Conservatives and Ukip than had previously been predicted.

The previously result suggested the Conservatives had a five point lead over Ukip – but the new results suggest that is just one percentage point.

In Doncaster North Ed Miliband is thirty points clear of his nearest challenger.