New Georgia president will ‘escalate tensions’, says RUSI associate fellow

We spoke to Natia Seskuria, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services think tank.

Alex Thomson: Where do we think this is going to go? Because it’s a standoff, isn’t it, at the moment?

Natia Seskuria: I think things are escalating quite quickly in Georgia. And obviously, today’s decision to elect somebody who was absolutely in no place to become the president of Georgia will, I guess, further escalate the tensions, which have already been quite significant.

Alex Thomson: It’s going to antagonise the people outside and beyond, isn’t it?

Natia Seskuria: Absolutely. Especially given that the president, the current president of Georgia, who is very much seen as a pro-Western leader, she said that she will not step down because of the fact that the elections, parliamentary elections, are not claimed to be legitimate.

Alex Thomson: Can she stick to that? That’s quite a claim to make, people are really drawing their lines in the sand here, aren’t they?

Natia Seskuria: Absolutely. This is an extraordinary crisis. I think the most significant crisis in Georgia that we have seen in the past decade or so. And I think she will definitely try to stick to her words, because this is all about Georgia’s democratic future, Georgia’s European future. And she’s seen as someone who can lead the country towards that way.

Alex Thomson: If it comes to it, which way, and I appreciate this is hard to answer, would the security apparatus in the country, the army, the police and so forth, which way are they going to jump? Because there’s two clear choices here before them?

Natia Seskuria: Absolutely. The police forces have been already pretty much part of these protests because we have seen some very disturbing footage which indicated that the police were using excessive force. I suspect that this will continue, unfortunately. But when it comes to the army, I think that is the most significant question, because the loyalty of the army has never been tested before. And I think when it comes to the Western influence, the most obvious institution which has been exposed to the benefits of Western Georgian cooperation, is the army.

Alex Thomson: You mentioned Western influence. Is there Western influence here? Macron’s made some comments about it, but in all honesty, the EU can’t do much about this in terms of action and can make rhetoric and make noises and so forth. But that’s about it, isn’t it?

Natia Seskuria: I think the EU still has some leverage here in terms of, there is a discussion, for instance, about imposing sanctions, which is very much a difficult decision given that there is Hungary, obviously, which is very much friendly to the current Georgian Dream government. But at the same time, I think the EU has been more absent than present when it comes to this crisis. And this crisis, as you know, is all about Georgia’s European future. And the EU integration is the core of the demands that people who have been out into the streets for 17 days now are requesting from the government.

Alex Thomson: Give us a sense, is this a government, a sort of pro-Moscow government, which is essentially out of line with the people, or are they hearing the voice of people? Where broadly do Georgians stand, or are they simply divided on whether it’s pro-Moscow or pro-EU?

Natia Seskuria: I think in the past two years or so, the consensus among the public has been that the government is very much shifting towards Moscow because prior to that, the government was claiming that they were pro-EU, pro-Nato, which is and I think it’s very important to highlight that 86 per cent of the Georgian population supports the country’s integration into the EU. So that’s a very high number. But lately we have seen that they have introduced a set of laws, for instance, the foreign agents law, the anti-LGBTQIA law. And this indicates that this is very much Russian inspired decisions.