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14 Jan 2025

Israel-Palestine peace deal closer ‘than anyone can imagine’ says hostage negotiator

Europe Editor and Presenter

We spoke to Israeli hostage negotiator Gershon Baskin, and I started by asking what has led to a deal being potentially struck now.

Gershon Baskin: The big difference between what we’ve seen over the past months and right now is January 20th, when the Big T enters the White House once again. And all of them are putting the screws on Prime Minister Netanyahu, on the Qataris and the Egyptians who are putting the screws on Hamas. And all this pressure is working because we’re really, really, really close to an agreement.

Matt Frei: But hang on a minute, President Biden has at least told us that he’s been putting the screws on the Israeli prime minister consistently over the last year and a half or so – or since October 7th, and it hasn’t worked. So is Trump’s thumb screw much more powerful than Biden’s?

Gershon Baskin: Well, it could also be that Biden wasn’t really putting the screws on Israel, because we know at the same time that he said he’s drawing red lines and Israel better do this and that, he was sending more and more weapons and more and more money to Israel. So there was no real pressure felt by President…Prime Minister Netanyahu from President Biden. And when there’s a Democratic administration and a prime minister like Netanyahu in office, he can always go to his Republican friends. Now Netanyahu has no one to go to, to complain about the president putting pressure on Israel, when it’s the president himself from the Republican Party.

Matt Frei: And in the interim, waiting for this thing to get implemented, another 10,000 people have been killed?

Gershon Baskin: Another 10,000 people have been killed. A lot of Israeli soldiers have been killed. A lot more suffering has taken place on both sides of the border, mainly in the Gaza Strip. It’s really horrible.

Matt Frei: Okay. If this deal now goes ahead, does that mean the end of the Netanyahu government?

Gershon Baskin: No, I don’t think so. Netanyahu has the majority in his government to pull off the deal, even if the far extreme right wing opposes it, he will still be in power. The danger to Netanyahu’s coalition, or to his government, is that when the war is over, the call for new elections will grow louder. And the demanding of the Israeli public for a National Commission of Inquiry to determine how Israel failed to protect itself on October 7th, what led to that and the dysfunctional nature of the Israeli government since then, will all come to a head.

Matt Frei: But could he escape defeat in new elections?

Gershon Baskin: Well, all the polls since October 7th of last year show that Netanyahu cannot win another election. The size of his coalition or the ability to form a new government with the majority in the parliament is not there since October 7th.

Matt Frei: Finally, and briefly, if you don’t mind, six months before the Oslo Accords were signed on the South Lawn of the White House, Bill Clinton was president, Yasser Arafat was there, Yitzhak Rabin…the rest is history, as they say. But no one thought at that stage it was possible and then it was. Do you think something similar could happen on the South Lawn of the Trump White House?

Gershon Baskin: Precisely. And it’s not only that example you’re giving. We can talk about the Berlin Wall. We can talk about Nelson Mandela. We can talk about Syria and Bashar al Assad that no one predicted the day before the Syrian regime fell – that it would fall. So, yes, I think we’re actually closer to a possible Israeli-Palestinian peace deal than anyone can even imagine.

Matt Frei: Despite all the horror of the last year?

Gershon Baskin: Because of all the horror of the last year. There are still 7 million Israeli Jews and 7 million Palestinian Arabs between the river and the sea. They’re not going anywhere. And this has to be the last war. We can’t keep doing this.