‘Israel does not have the capability to do regime change’, says former IDF colonel

We spoke to Miri Eisin, who’s a retired colonel from the Israel Defence Forces.

Eisin worked with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert during the last Lebanon war and is now a fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism.

Matt Frei: Do you think the Israeli government agreed to this ceasefire because they were running out of ammunition, as the prime minister indicated today, or because the Americans were putting pressure on them?

Miri Eisin: I don’t think that the two actually contradict and I’ll add in, that nobody here wants a war, Matt. This isn’t about something that we wanted to go on forever. It’s a question of what you can continue to achieve, both against Hezbollah inside Lebanon right now without, at the end, really completely destroying this country called Lebanon that hosts them. And listening to Mr. Hasbani before, it’s really that challenge of Hezbollah being in Lebanon. They are Lebanese, they are Arabic, they speak Arabic. So for us, it’s not about Lebanon. It’s about Hezbollah and what you can achieve.

Matt Frei: But Prime Minister Netanyahu also just said that they will now focus more again on Hamas and also on Iran. What does that mean, do you think, ‘focusing on Iran’?

Miri Eisin: The prime minister has been very consistent, Prime Minister Netanyahu, I’ll even say from 2009, he’s been our prime minister for many years, in focusing on Iran. And in its own way, it’s as if that the Hamas attack on 7 October, part of the reason, just part of the reason for the failure is because the prime minister was looking at Iran and did not see Hamas. But I say that right now that at the end, Iran itself as a country, 90 million strong, backing Hezbollah, backing the Houthis, attacking Israel twice directly, and their quest for the nuclear bomb is very scary. So I’m all for focusing on that. Having said that, we still have what’s called the Gaza front, the Hamas front, and 101 hostages that are still in the Gaza Strip.

Matt Frei: Just a couple of things. It’s interesting watching Mr. Netanyahu wear his red tie tonight, which he doesn’t normally, but I wonder if he’s channelling Donald Trump. Does he believe that Trump will give him an opportunity to attack Iran on a wider scale and perhaps cause regime change there?

Miri Eisin: I don’t think that Israel has the capability to do regime change. And I would say in that sense, there’s a difference between targeting the nuclear facilities because those nuclear facilities don’t threaten Israel, Matt, they threaten the world. Nobody wants Iran to be nuclear. But there is a difference between that and regime change. I do think that this prime minister feels that he will have an easier conversation with President Trump. I don’t know if that’s right, but I think that the prime minister thinks that.

Matt Frei: Of course, the Americans hope that this will now pave the way for some kind of ceasefire in Gaza. 44,000 people have been killed in Gaza, most of them civilians. It’s been a terrible tragedy for Gaza, but also it’s isolated Israel more than you might have imagined a year ago. Isn’t it time for the right pressure to be put on Netanyahu to end this Gaza thing and try and come up with some sort of solution for the Palestinians and rebuild?

Miri Eisin: I wish it was as easy as that. You do realise that on 8 October, for that matter yesterday or today, all Hamas have to do is give back 101 hostages and it’s done. This is about Hamas attacking us, taking the hostages, doing horrific things, building themselves inside the civilian community. I’m not saying it’s an easy, simple one. I do think that we have to find a resolution. I don’t think anybody should be using, right now, the terms of peace. I think that that’s a challenging one right now. But yes, to arrive at an end to this overt, horrific fighting.