Economic benefits of HS2 rail line lowered

The estimate in August 2012 was that the benefits would be worth £2.50 for every £1 spent, but this has now been revised downwards to £2.30.

The new figures are included in a report published by HS2 Ltd and are based on a recalculation of the number of business people using the line and the amount of work they complete while they are travelling.

Despite Labour concerns about the cost of HS2, Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin is calling for political consensus over the plans.

But shadow transport secretary Mary Creagh said: “Labour has always supported HS2 because we must address the capacity problems that mean thousands of commuters face cramped, miserable journeys into cities like Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and London.

“However, we cannot give a government that is mismanaging this, or any project, a blank cheque.”

As we expected, the government have pulled some random figures out of the air in a desperate attempt to con the public. Joe Rukin, Stop HS2

The scheme’s first phase would run from London to Birmingham in 2026, with a second Y-shaped route to north-east and north-west England completed in 2032/33.

Reduced journey times

Its estimated cost is £42.6bn, with a further £7.5bn for the trains. It would reduce journey times from London to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds to 49 minutes, one hour eight minutes and one hour 22 minutes respectively.

The government has also released a report prepared by Network Rail and management consultancy Atkins, which concludes that there would have to be 2,770 weekend closures – totalling 144,000 hours of work – on the east coast, west coast and Midland main lines if they were to replace the intended capacity of HS2.

The study warns that, during a typical weekend, the journey time from London to Leeds could more than double from two hours 10 minutes to more than four-and-a-half hours.

The cost benefit analysis says building the line would help to ease the north-south divide and treble the number of train seats into Euston station in London.

HS2 Ltd Director General David Prout said the company’s case was based on passengers paying the same fares as “normal” travellers on other long-distance routes.

Mr McLoughlin said: “We need a radical solution and HS2 is it. A patch-and- mend job will not do – the only option is a new north south railway. Now is the time to be bold and deliver a world-class railway which Britain deserves and can truly be proud of. Future generations will not forgive us if we fail to take this opportunity.”

The government said the revised benefits analysis for HS2 was similar to Crossrail and higher than Thameslink and the Jubilee Line extension. It added that benefits will increase to £4.50 for every £1 spent if rail demand continues to rise until 2049.

‘Con the public’

Joe Rukin, from Stop HS2, said: “As we expected, the government have pulled some random figures out of the air in a desperate attempt to con the public.

“As if by magic, they expect us to believe that, after three years, the economic case for HS2 has risen like a phoenix from the flames. They surely must realise that everyone is going to see through this cynical attempt at spin.”

Michael Roberts, director-general of rail industry organisation the Rail Delivery Group, said: “Through the hard times and the good, demand for rail travel has boomed. There are a million more services and half a billion more passengers on the railway this year than there were a decade ago.

“By 2020, a further 400 million journeys will be made annually. There is a capacity challenge not just on the west coast main line but on the railway more generally.”

‘Broad political consensus’

In a speech in Manchester on Tuesday, Mr McLoughlin will say: “There is a lively debate (on HS2). I respect that. I respect the fact that not everyone will agree and that some people are concerned about the impact on the places they live.

“I respect those with serious proposals for improvements which we can take on board. But I also respect what (former Network rail chief) Sir John Armitt said in his recent report for Labour on infrastructure: that big projects need ‘broad political consensus’ as well as ‘resolution’ from political leaders.

“That’s why the new north-south railway must be a national project with broad support across parties or in the end it will be nothing.”