Gulf states back US Libya plans, but at a price?

It looks as if the Americans are swinging behind not just a no-fly zone over Libya, but more aggressive measures to deter Colonel Gaddafi from attacking the rebel-held city of Benghazi. If the UN Security Council goes ahead and passes tonight’s resolution, it will be primarily because the Arab League asked them to, and it seems several Gulf Arab countries may provide military facilities to enable the US, Britain and France to go ahead with attacks on Gaddafi’s tanks and other armour.

But is there a quid pro quo? Will the protestors in Bahrain be sacrificed for those in Libya to be saved? While Sunni Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would be happy to see Colonel Gaddafi ousted, they’re determined that King Hamad bin Khalifa in Bahrain should not meet the same fate. So have they agreed to help get rid of Gaddafi in exchange for a tacit agreement that they can crush dissent in Bahrain?

Troops from Saudi and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries are already in the island kingdom shoring up the King’s rule. They call it brotherly assistance, while the protestors call it occupation.

Europeans might see the protest movements in Bahrain and Libya as similar – a cry for democracy and freedom from suppressed people, especially the youth. But Gulf Arab rulers regard the protests in Bahrain as a backdoor for Iran to get influence.

The Shi’a Muslims I’ve met in Bahrain say they’re not puppets of Iran, just because they belong to the same sect as Iranians. They say they’re Arabs, not Persians, and loyal Bahraini citizens. They just want equal rights with Bahrain’s Sunni elite. But Gulf royal families don’t see it that way. They regard Bahrain’s 60 per cent Shi’a population as a fifth column for the Iranians, and fear that if they give concessions, then Saudi’s Shi’a minority – who happen to live in the oil producing eastern region – may also revolt.

Bahraini protestors are already complaining at the perceived lack of American support for their cause. They say it’s hypocritical for the US and European countries to talk of democracy, and not back them. But realpolitick sometimes conflicts with idealogy or idealism. If it’s a contest between American values and American interests, then interests will win out. And the Gulf rulers who look as if they’ll help get rid of Gaddafi may be given free rein to crush protest in Bahrain.