Greece crisis: one month to Grexit?

4 June: Greece starts missing payments

Athens refuses to make a €305m repayment due to the International Monetary Fund (part of its bailout deal).

It will bundle up three further payments of €312m due on 12 June, €573m on 16 June, and €343m on 19 June – owing the full amount on 30 June.

By choosing to do this it avoids immediate default, but it is also building up to precarious brinkmanship with the leaders of Europe.

17 June: Greek central bank warns county on course to leave eurozone

In a rare admission, the bank says failure to reach an agreement would “mark the beginning of a painful course that would lead initially to a Greek default and ultimately to the country’s exit from the euro area and, most likely, from the European Union”.

It says that €30bn was withdrawn from Greek bank deposits between October and April as capital flees the country.

18 June: eurogroup meeting

The crunch meeting of eurogroup finance ministers ends in disappointment, with Greece accused by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister who chairs the eurogroup, saying that Greece has put forward “too little measures” to be seen as “credible and serious”.

He also says that he is still confident that they would be able to strike a deal before the end of June.

This is not unexpected. Despite rumours of a €10bn rescue plan for the Greek economy, this is seen as the moment that the Europeans could present Athens with a “take it or leave it plan”.

18 June: IMF warns Greece will not be allowed to delay

The head of the International Monetary Fund says Greece cannot delay. “There is no grace period or two-month delay, as I have seen here and there,” says Christine Lagarde, as she confirms that the 30 June deadline for Greece’s repayment of €1.6bn to the IMF remains definitive.

18 June: fears of run on the banks grow

Greek depositors have withdrawn more than €3.2bn since Monday, 15 June, including a staggering €1.2bn on 18 June alone, raising fears of a serious run on the banks.

25 June: European summit

This is the last-chance saloon as heads of government meet in Brussels.

It may come down to a showdown between Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s prime minister, and Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. But so close to the deadline, even this meeting could come too late.

30 June: deadline day

The bundled Greek payment of €1.5bn to IMF and €1.5bn domestic wage and pensions bill. This is the real crunch moment.

Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s finance minister, has said on several occasions that the government’s priority is to pay its workers.

Some commentators conclude that the price of Grexit is so high that Greece can count on the eurozone giving ground at the last minute. But vocal critics, not least Angela Merkel, say if the euro is to endure, its rules must be enforceable.

It is possible Greece could benefit from a 30-day grace period if it misses the payment. But Greece owes €9.7bn to the IMF this year. Missing any installment to the IMF would see the country fall into an arrears process, unprecedented for a developed world debtor.

20 July: the game could be up

This is the date that everything could go wrong for Greece.

Delays in payments to the IMF would not prompt the European Central Bank to shut off vital liquidity to Greek banks – providing money by buying bonds so that Greek banks can continue to function. The real, immediate lifeline to the Greek economy.

If Greece does not repay €3.5bn on 20 July, the ECB will pull funding – the nuclear option, which would force Athens to implement capital controls on currency or quit the euro altogether.