‘Every chance’ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will hold, says former US ambassador

Ambassador David Satterfield, served as Joe Biden’s Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian issues in addressing the crisis in Gaza.

Cathy Newman: Mr. Satterfield, how confident are you that this ceasefire will hold?

David Satterfield: I think there’s every chance, every possibility, that the ceasefire will indeed hold – at least for the immediate future. Hezbollah’s leadership has been devastated. Its infrastructure, at least in the south, has been hit badly, and it has every reason to preserve what remains of its position without further damage being done, including damage to the civilian population whose support it depends upon. The longer this current fight was to go on, the more the turn of public opinion against Hezbollah, as occurred in 2006, was going to be an inevitability. So we always saw a ceasefire in Lebanon as an achievable goal. This is not about the elimination of Hezbollah, it’s the containment.

Cathy Newman: And I just wonder in that context how much Joe Biden can chalk this up as a sort of key legacy of his administration?

David Satterfield: It’s a significant accomplishment. It is the product of months and months of highest level diplomacy involving the US and its key partners, including the UK and France. It is an achievement. Whether the achievement holds is not a product of the administration or the agreement itself – it’s Hezbollah. Do they intend to be aggressive and challenging or not? But it is an accomplishment.

Cathy Newman: And does it provide new impetus for a Gaza ceasefire? Because Hamas and Israel both have their reasons for not, you know, going that much further and trying to do a deal on Gaza.

David Satterfield: My optimism is contained – with respect to the potential for a ceasefire in Gaza. Hamas appears determined to continue to allow the Palestinian population in Gaza to be sacrificed at the expense of its own ideological and political aims. It has rejected a response for some three months now to their hostage release ceasefire proposal the US, Qatar and Egypt have put on the table. Now that’s being renewed right now. Again, to test to see whether Hamas now – with the Hezbollah decoupling from Gaza – is ready to accept an agreement or not.

Cathy Newman: But the US voted against a ceasefire resolution at the UN just last week. So I wonder – Israel has its own reasons as well for stalling on that.

David Satterfield: The US vetoed the resolution because language which was similar to the language on a resolution months ago that we did vote for, which was proposed by the UK, was rejected. And a ceasefire stood alone – without the essential linkage to the release of hostages that we regarded in the past, and still regard as essential.

Cathy Newman: Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains desperate. And we’ve got now the prospect of, well the definite likelihood – imminence – of a Trump administration. So what difference does that make in all of this?

David Satterfield: Well, the situation in Gaza, as President Biden referred to yesterday, is indeed hell. It’s miserable and it is deteriorating and it has to be addressed. That’s what the administration is trying to do. But with respect to the impact of a new presidential administration, I’m going to leave that to the op-ed writers, pundits and political advocates. What is critical today, not 50 days from now, when a new administration takes power, is to test to see, through diplomacy, whether Hamas is ready now to accept a ceasefire with release of hostages that for three months it has refused to respond to.

Cathy Newman: So how do you see Joe Biden trying to achieve that in those 50 days?

David Satterfield: Well the president has stated that he is dispatching senior level officials to the region to discuss with the Saudis, with the Egyptians, with the Qataris, with the Turks, whether, in fact, renewed pressure upon Hamas can be brought to bear – to see if this is possible or not. As I said, my own optimism is under containment. But it’s critical to try.

Cathy Newman: But you are optimistic about the Lebanon deal?

David Satterfield: I am indeed, at least for the near-term.

Cathy Newman: Well, that’s the best we can hope for.