5 Oct 2015

David Miliband versus Jeremy Corbyn: Who would win?

As David Miliband returns for a high profile speech at the Institute of Directors we ask the question would Corbymania be so powerful if he the other Miliband had returned to contest the leadership?

In the run up to the 2010 election David Miliband was the popular choice, polling higher than his brother among the public. But it was Ed Miliband who won the leadership and lost the 2015 election – sparking a new contest for the leadership of the party the emergence of Jeremy Corbyn from 32 years on the backbenches.

But if the older Mr Miliband had been lured back to London to stand against Mr Corbyn would he have been successful? We have a look at the evidence.

David Miliband was more popular than his brother. And many have said he is the Labour leader that never was. He was more popular than his brother, but under the old rules Ed Miliband became leader after winning over the unions.

But, in the run up to the election, Jeremy Corbyn was far more popular than David Miliband ever was.

However, he was far less so when “none of these” and “don’t knows” are included – suggesting that he much less popular amongst those who would not naturally vote Labour.

When it comes to bringing non-voters in from the cold David Miliband was the most likely leader in 2010 to lure people to the Labour party – however as many would be unswayed as swayed.

However people are even more likely to choose Labour with Mr Corbyn in the driving seat… but then again many more people are less likely to vote for the party too. Another example of the current incumbent’s marmite effect on the public.

Although it is important to point out that 40 per cent said it made no difference and they would not vote for Labour either way – and it was actually Andy Burnham who was more likely to woo voters over to the party.

But only one vote really matters – and polling shows Mr Miliband was right not to run for leader… at least for now.

Because the groundswell of Corbynmania would have meant that he would have lost.

Although among all voters it is Mr Miliband, not Mr Corbyn who comes out on top. When the same question is put to the general public Mr Miliband wins the backing of 28 per cent to Mr Corbyn’s 21.

And as the dust settles Mr Miliband carries on in his high profile role as the EO of the International Rescue Committee, Mr Corbyn comes under mounting pressure back home.

Attacked for not singing the national anthem and challenged over whether he could “push the red button” for nuclear attack if the occasion arose, it has been a tough few weeks. Resulting in him become the most unpopular opposition leader ever – although core support remains strong.