Wet and windy weather to continue
This week has so far delivered weather more akin to autumn than what we experienced through October, with wind and rain sweeping in off the Atlantic.
Whilst generally not causing any significant problems, there has been some localised flooding due to the amount of rain falling in south western parts of the UK.
Looking further ahead towards the weekend, with more rain and sometimes brisk winds to come, whilst nothing major, some places may experience a few problems.
Slow-moving weather fronts
As I mentioned in my blog on Monday, slow-moving weather fronts will have the potential to cause bands of rain to sit similar areas for prolonged periods of time.
Normally in autumn, low pressure systems sweep from west to east, driven by the mid-latitude jet stream. This leads to bands of rain moving through fairly swiftly.
However, to the north and east of the UK at the moment, high pressure is building, which is acting as an atmospheric wall, impeding the progress of low pressure systems rolling in off the Atlantic Ocean.
With bands of rain getting stuck over similar areas for prolonged periods of time, there is a risk of surface water and river flooding.
Where is most at risk?
In addition to rain, gales are likely for a time across south west England, west Wales, eastern parts of Northern Ireland and the far west of Scotland.
In fact, for a time on Thursday, coasts and hills in the areas mentioned above could temporarily have severe gales, with gusts of 60-70mph – enough to cause some tree damage and travel disruption.
Then later on Friday and into the weekend, the focus of the heavy rain shifts further northwards across north east England and eastern parts of Scotland, with localised flooding possible in these areas too.
Any sign of settled weather?
There are signs that the blocking area of high pressure to the north and east of the UK may extend further towards us in around 10 days.
This would tend to keep low pressure systems to the south west of us, leading to a theme of drier weather with some frost and fog.
What is very uncertain at the moment is the orientation of the high pressure when it extends over us.
This is important, as it will determine which direction the wind is coming from and whether or not it will get colder.