A little #uksnow possible in the next few days
Away from the mountains of Scotland, snow has been a rarity this winter. This has been due to the dominance of mild air coming in off the Atlantic with the relentless storms that have battered our shores.
However, in the coming days it’ll turn a bit colder, which will bring the risk of some snow in places, as rain bumps into cold air.
Despite the possibility of some snow, I would emphasise that it’s nothing to get too excited about, as it will generally be confined to the hills and mountains.
It’s all in the timing
The air over the UK in the coming days isn’t that cold, and it will depend on areas of low pressure taking a particular track and arriving at night, when the air is coldest, for snow to fall.
So, in effect, all the necessary ingredients have to come together at the right time in order to get snow.
During the past few days, the weather computer models have been all over the place, with the detail changing a little day by day.
This is because the low pressures involved are quite small and develop close to the UK. As a result, the weather computer models are having difficulty pinning down the detail in what is a marginal situation.
#uksnow on Friday
During Thursday night into Friday morning, an area of low pressure will move across southern parts of the UK, bringing a strengthening wind and some heavy rain.However, as the rain bumps into colder air across Wales, the Midlands and central southern England, it is likely to turn to snow over hills above 200 metres (area in Met Office warning map to left).
This means that places like the south Wales valleys, Forest of Dean, the Cotswolds and Chiltern hills could see a covering of snow – probably no more than a few centimetres.
Low-lying areas are more likely to see rain, although if the rain is heavy enough for a few hours, it could drag down colder air from higher up in the sky and change over to snow.
Even if the the rain does turn to snow in low-lying areas, it is unlikely to amount to anything more than a slushy covering on grass verges.
Nevertheless, given that most of us haven’t seen any snow this winter, it is something to consider if you are travelling in the areas mentioned tomorrow.