A summery September weekend for many
After the wettest summer in 100 years and also the second wettest on record, it seems as if the weather has had it in for us this year. We’ve gone from droughts to floods in a matter of months, with warmth and sunshine in short supply.
However, this week has been pretty pleasant for much of the UK, with high pressure sitting over us. Whilst the nights have been a bit chilly, the days have been filled with sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
So will the fine weather continue this weekend? Will we get the chance to dust off the barbecue? In a nutshell – yes, but as always, some places will fare better than others.
Much of Scotland, Northern Ireland and north west England will start the weekend on a cloudy note with outbreaks of light rain and drizzle early on.
However, through the morning, most places will brighten up with some sunshine – except western Scotland, where cloud and drizzle will linger all day.
The rest of England and all of Wales will see any locally dense patches of fog clear in the morning, to leave a fine and warm day with lots of sunshine.
Temperatures will reach 19-26C across England and Wales, with 14-22C for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Central and eastern parts of England will have another generally fine day, although the best of the sunshine will be during the morning and early part of the afternoon. By the end of the day, cloud will increase and the breeze pick up with the chance of a few showers.
For the rest of the UK, there’ll be some early morning sunshine, but the cloud will quickly increase, with showers spreading in from the west by lunchtime – possibly heavy for Northern Ireland and western Scotland.
Temperatures will reach 23-28C across central and eastern parts of England, with 17-22C elsewhere.
The weather next week is going to be a challenge for us meteorological folk. Whilst the general trend is for the weather to turn more unsettled with brisk winds and outbreaks of rain, getting the detail right day by day will be tricky.
This is because there are currently two hurricanes in the mid Atlantic ocean and computer models have trouble working out precisely where their remnants will end up going.
The remnants of hurricanes contain a lot of warmth, energy and moisture, which if picked up by the jet stream can form vigorous areas of low pressure that head towards us, bringing wet and windy weather.
However, for this to happen, the remnants of the hurricane need to interact with the jet stream at the right time. The easiest way to imagine how this works is to think of a train journey which involves changing trains.
If each train runs on time as expected then you get the perfect outcome and you reach your destination as planned. But if one train runs late and you miss the connection, then things don’t work out how you originally thought. This may well be the case with our weather next week.