11 Jul 2012

Sodden ground and more rain on the way

Mid-July is fast approaching, the Olympics are a little over a fortnight away and yet the weather shows no resemblance to anything like summer. In fact the weather we’ve had during the past few months would put an average autumn to shame.

The jet stream is stuck to the south of us still, with menacing clouds and downpours of rain arriving on a regular basis – something that I’ve decided to call the rain train.

Event after event has been affected by the weather either being rained off or cancelled due to the ground being so muddy – the Great Yorkshire Show one of the latest casualties.

As a weatherman, summer is usually a quieter time of year. Apart from a few thunderstorms or a rogue area of low pressure spoiling a bank holiday, those of us in the meteorological community tend to have a peaceful life. Not this year!

Whilst I’m just the messenger for the meteorological delights that arrives on our shores, inevitably people tend to express a little bit of frustration towards me when I say that there’s no sign of a heat wave anytime soon.

So, after the wettest April, a wet first half of May and the wettest June, July has continued with the rain and flooding theme.

The next few days will see yet more wet weather set in across England and Wales in particular. Whilst in a normal summer it wouldn’t be a problem, the issue at the moment is that the ground across much of the UK is sodden – effectively unable to absorb any more water.

With the ground unable to soak up anymore rainfall, any rain that does fall tends to remain above ground causing surface flooding very quickly. Many cases of flooding during the past week alone have seen streets turned into rivers in the space of an hour.

Having looked at the latest forecast, it looks like England and Wales will see the greatest amount of rain during the next two days – especially from the Midlands southwards. Most places here are likely to see 15-25mm of rain, with as much as 30-40mm locally.

From the Midlands northwards into Scotland and Northern Ireland, any rainfall during the next two days is likely to come in the form of showers. This means that some places will see very little, but where heavier showers occur, the risk of flooding remains.

Looking a little further ahead to the next two weeks, there are signs that high pressure will try to nudge up from the south which may mean it will turn a little sunnier and warmer at times.

However, generally the signal is still for the weather to stay quite mixed, with rain or showers possible at times.

Climatologically, we are now approaching what is on average the warmest time of the year, but the latest Met Office 30 day forecast says that a lengthy spell of hot and sunny weather looks “unlikely”.

Don’t forget you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website or ask me your weather questions on Twitter – @liamdutton

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