A ‘once in 50 years’ storm? I don’t think so
There are signs that the weather may be a bit better next week compared to the week we’ve just had – news that I’m sure many will be pleased to hear.
But before I get onto that, I just want to reflect upon reports in some media outlets yesterday that we were set to experience ‘a once in 50 years’ storm.
As I wrote in my blog yesterday, another area of low pressure was poised to bring heavy rain, strong winds and a risk of localised flooding during the coming days – unseasonable yes, exceptional no.
In yesterday’s reports there were claims that winds would reach 70-80mph. Yet having looked back at data that takes into account the last 36 hours up until lunchtime today, the highest gust of wind I can find at a representative low-level site is 57mph – at Carlisle and Warcrop which are both in Cumbria.
Whilst there has been heavy rain with thundery downpours following, there have been no major or widespread problems reported.
In fact the AA’s Special Operations Report Team contacted me on Twitter to say that today has been the quietest of the last week as of midday. Today they’ve had only two cases of vehicles stuck in flood water, compared with 99 up until 3pm on Monday.
On the flooding front, things have also been quiet with the Environment Agency having only two flooding warnings and 21 flood alerts in place.
The problem with the reports yesterday was the quality of sources. Some of them – such as the Environment Agency, Met Office and MeteoGroup were credible, whereas some were questionable, particularly when compared to what has happened in reality.
Looking ahead to this weekend, it’s still looking lively for the rest of Friday and into Saturday with gusty winds, showers or longer spells of rain and a risk of localised flooding.
However, from Sunday onwards, it does look as though the weather will become a little bit more settled – especially across southern and eastern parts of the UK.
It’s worth highlighting that it’ll be a relative improvement to the week of downpours we’ve just had, so no heat wave. But there will be a better chance of sunshine in between showers and feeling warmer with temperatures a little higher at 17-22C.