Hurricanes Leslie and Michael drift around the Atlantic
After a relatively quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season, things have sprung to life with an increase in the number of storms forming recently. At the moment, two hurricanes are active in the Atlantic – Leslie and Michael.
Hurricane Isaac hit the Gulf Coast of the US last week, bringing heavy rain and flooding across Louisiana and Alabama in particular.
It’s not unusual for the level of storm activity to increase at this time of year in the Atlantic Ocean as they feed off the reservoir of energy in the warm ocean waters.
On average, the busiest period of the hurricane season is from mid-August to mid-October, with a statistical peak around 10 September.
Image courtesy of NOAA – average hurricane activity by date
The reason for the busiest period being towards the end of summer and into early autumn is that this is when ocean waters tend to be warmest, having received the cumulative heating from the sun during the summer.
Effectively there’s a lag between the oceans receiving heat from the sun and when they actually warm up. This makes sense, because when you boil a saucepan of cold water, even if you turn the heat to maximum, it still takes time for the heating process to take effect.
Image courtesy of CIMSS – recent view of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Michael (circled in orange)
This storm has become the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season, reaching category 3, with sustained winds of around 115mph.
Despite being a strong storm, it is over open water and is no threat to land. The latest forecast weakens Michael slightly as it move north westwards in the next few days.
Hurricane Leslie (circled in red)
Leslie is currently a category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of around 75mph.
A few days ago, it looked like Leslie could hit Bermuda, but the latest forecast keeps the storm to the east of the island.
Despite the storm not making a direct hit, Bermuda will feel the effects of the Leslie’s periphery this weekend, with dangerous rip currents, large waves and increasing winds.
Potential storm (circled in yellow)
An area of showers and thunderstorms is currently lying in the Gulf of Mexico. Whilst organisation hasn’t improved in the last 24 hours, the National Hurricane Center still gives a moderate (40%) chance of this developing into a named storm.
Having looked at the weather computer models into next week, there are signs that another two named storms may form in the Atlantic Ocean. Whilst at this stage, it’s too early for much detail, keep an eye on my Twitter updates for the latest information – @liamdutton