20 Nov 2013

Express snow warnings a load of hot air

For the past week, I’ve been talking about the fact that colder weather was going to arrive across the UK, with some snow – although with most places seeing nothing at all.

Sure enough, we’re midway through the week and despite numerous headlines in some tabloid newspapers, there’s been no chaos, temperatures haven’t fallen to -15C and most of us haven’t seen any snow.

It can be somewhat frustrating to see such stories published that cause people to worry about the severity of forthcoming weather, when there really is no need at all.

To illustrate my point, I thought I’d look at an article published by the Daily Express on Saturday 16 November and compare what they said would happen to what has actually happened.

hilltop_snow_g_wp

Snowfall

The article published last Saturday wrote with regards to snowfall: “Forecasters predict that much of the UK will see the first snowfalls of winter by Thursday.”

At this point, it’s worth noting that it doesn’t make clear which forecasters are being referred to in this quote.

As far as I am aware, credible weather forecasting services have never predicted that much of the UK will see snowfall, just relatively few areas and mainly over the hills and mountains.

Below, is a high-resolution Nasa satellite picture taken on Tuesday at around 1pm. It has had a filter applied to it that picks out snow cover on the land in bright red.

19thNovember_MODIS_UK_redsnow_wp

As you can see, the only places to have snow lying on the ground are northern Scotland, along with the hills and mountains of Northern Ireland, south west Scotland, north west England and Wales. Elsewhere, there is none.

This hasn’t changed as of 1pm Wednesday, with the only official weather station I can find with snow on the ground being Aviemore in the Highlands – indicative that lying snow is largely confined to hills and mountains.

Even looking ahead to the next 24 hours, the only places expected to have snow on the ground are likely to be hills and mountains above 200 metres – mainly in the north.

Minimum temperatures

With regards to minimum temperatures, the article published last Saturday wrote: “Experts warn the mercury will plummet as low as -15C (5F) overnight in remote northern areas while lows of -11C are likely elsewhere.”

frosty_tree_g_wpAs of last night, the lowest temperature I could find so far this week anywhere in the UK was -6.5C at Benson in Oxfordshire – nowhere near -11C, let alone -15C.

Even looking ahead to temperatures for the next few nights, the lowest will be somewhere around -8C for the Highlands in Scotland. Most of us will experience night time temperatures of -4C to +3C.

On both measures of snowfall and minimum temperatures, the predictions in the article have been incorrect by a considerable margin.

What appears to be the case here is that the most extreme possible outcomes for the remotest places have been extrapolated to give the impression that most of us will experience them – which has clearly not been the case.

It is, after all, November – a time of year when it turns colder and the first snow of the season is to be expected. So, let’s save the hard-hitting wintry weather headlines until when winter really hits us hard.

Don’t forget, you can get the latest forecast on the Channel 4 Weather website. I also post regular updates on Twitter – @liamdutton

Tweets by @liamdutton

6 reader comments

  1. Mel Rawnsley says:

    Thanks for putting things into perspective. I have laughed, annually at this time of year, at the Express and it’s ”we’ll all freeze to death” headlines. I often wonder why they consult their obviously inept bunch of so called ”forecasters”. They do quote names but surely these people must be embarrassed by the way they are quoted. That is if they are genuine forecasters at all.
    However, I never believe a word the Express has to say on the weather.
    Just hope they don’t forecast a hot Summer ’14 or I’ll have to get the wellies and umbrellas out.

  2. Brian Wheeler says:

    A good article and confirms what must if us already know – newspapers will report anything with no evidence whatsoever. I’d like to see someone sue the Daily Express over such scaremongering. I also can’t wait for the day when newspapers are legislated so much that they have no choice but to report factual news only.

    1. joshua mottram says:

      you are right and they will have no choice to put only factual news on the front pages either one way or anothr so yeah at least we are realising their stupid mistakes

  3. ashley haworth-roberts says:

    I commented under an earlier Express front page ‘screaming’ headline last week, which predicted ‘four inches’ of snow – “we’re all DOOMED”.
    I did not even read the Saturday ‘six inches’ story because I knew it was nonsense.
    But a front page alarmist weather headline ‘warning’, one which readers have not heard on TV or from the Met Office, sells newspapers to the gullible. Never mind that it’s wrong – frequently their predictions are very wrong – it stopped somebody buying Saturday’s Daily Mail.
    The Express are a joke. The Star weather stories are not much better.
    The Express is never taken seriously in the BBC News channel and Sky News newspaper review discussions. Deservedly so.

  4. Russ Wirral says:

    At last a bit of common sense. Having to explain to my colleagues that the first frost of the year doesnt equal “Severe Winter weather” as the express warned. Its silly as it cries wolf…. wait for the really severe weather and people will be caught out, and in extreme cases may cost lives (road accidents, lack of preperation on long journeys etc)

  5. Paul X says:

    The Express relies on some seaweed and pinecone weather forcaster called James Madden

    Madden predicts an apocalyptic winter every year in the hope of one year he ghets lucky. An indication of his ineptitude is that the majority of his website (exacta weather) is full of his pathetic attempts at justifications in trying to find weather events that fitted his “forcasts”

    He is a liability and should not be allowed to cause concern in the vunerable in society with his scaremongering,and the Express should be ashamed of itself for profitting in this manner

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