18 Mar 2011

Who’s in the ‘alliance of the willing’?

Most military engagements are preceded by an ultimatum and President Obama has now given Colonel Gaddafi one.

There was much to-ing and fro-ing between allies as to what he should say. In the end the heart of it, on top of calling for an end to attacks on civilians, was drawing a line in the sand to which Gaddafi’s forces must retreat. It is about 130 miles west of his furthest current position.

There is no timescale for the “not negotiable” terms. If he’s really been reading the Saddam Hussein textbook then you might expect Col Gaddafi to make a couple of movements which he might claim show he is beginning to withdraw but needs time to comply.A Whitehall source explained to me that there had been a chance that the President would unveil who is in the alliance against Gaddafi and that it is “fluid around the edges”.

It is not only Gulf states I am told that are a bit nervous about exactly when they want to declare their support for the alliance. So there is still no definitive list of members, no clarity on NATO’s role, no detail on where planes will be based. The Chief of the Defence Staff is, we are told, still talking to counterparts around the world.

Although the President said there would be no negotiations, his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, said earlier that, if there were negotiations with Col Gaddafi, “a final result of any negotiations would have to be a decision to leave”.

Straightening out lines within the administration isn’t quite working smoothly and it’s a problem cubed, it seems, inside the wider alliance.

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