22 May 2015

Is Ukip a threat to Labour in the north?

Before I get back to the Riga summit, a footnote to Philip Collins in the Times, who is making an argument today that goes to the heart of how you see the Labour leadership contest and the task ahead.

Is Labour facing an existential threat in Northern seats from Ukip that could eat at a heartland just as the SNP has in Scotland?

VE Day 70th Anniversary Day Three

In the general election, Ukip came second, as he points out, in 44 Labour seats. But they’re quite a long way off Labour’s tail in most of these.

They are more than 30 per cent off the Labour candidate (often around 10,000 votes) in all but seven by my tally – apologies if I missed any.

I make it eight seats where they are second and within 30 per cent of the winning Labour candidate, and these are (with actual percentage off lead in brackets):

  • Dagenham (11 per cent)
  • Heywood and Middleton (11 per cent)
  • Hartlepool (17 per cent)
  • West Bromwich West (22 per cent)
  • Doncaster South (25 per cent)
  • Bolton South East (27 per cent)
  • Hull East (29 per cent)
  • Doncaster North (29.8 per cent)

There are, it looks to me, four Labour seats where Ukip are within 30 per cent but in third place:

  • Wrexham (22 per cent)
  • Bishops Auckland (23 per cent)
  • Great Grimsby (24 per cent)
  • W Bromwich E (29 per cent)

And on a different story in today’s papers, I hear that the Lib Dems are going to get only two working peers in the coming list, so reports of all those defeated or retired folk turning them down were a bit optimistic perhaps.

Ming Campbell and Alan Beith are thought to be the front-runners for the slots, assuming Charles Kennedy, as an ex-leader, doesn’t want one.

Lib Dems say they believe that the Tories might be planning scores of Tory working peers and were spotted working on the lists before the general election.

David Cameron and Nick Clegg are said to have agreed they would not be putting together a dissolution honours list.

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4 reader comments

  1. Stephen says:

    Main threat to Labour was in how many UKIP supporters tactically voted Tory or Labour in Tory – Labour marginals.

  2. Philip Edwards says:

    Gary,

    The answer to your question is No.

    But they might be by the time the Murdoch boot boys and the rest of the proto fascist thugs in mainstream media get into open stride.

    What a sad, ugly, paranoid society we have become. No wonder the Scots and Welsh want out.

  3. Sebastian Monroe says:

    Labour hasn’t supported the working class and as a result they feel rejected.

    UKIP on the other hand has provided costed and well thought out policies that put the working people of Britain first.

  4. Iain Macleod says:

    Somebody needs to threaten the Labour party since Blair turned it into a “Light Blue ” Tory party.. It should get back to its roots or cease to exist

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